December 27, 2018. If you are a trader and had been watching the stock market yesterday minute by minute, you could have made a lot of money. Just buy early in the morning, follow the trend, and sell at the end of the day. Alas, we are not stock traders and were busy doing other things…..lol
The volatility is a bad sign, and we recommend you stay away from buying and selling stocks right now…unless you are an educated and experienced trader. 600 points down, 1000 points up, today down over 400……this indicates there are bad problems. And the momentum trends are still down. Do not get giddy over the one day advances like we saw yesterday.
We suggest you stay with ‘term’ positions that mature at a specific date, and return your money….with the earned dividends.
We are BUYING a small position in SCA, Stellus Capital, a smaller Business Development Company.
We are fully invested and have very little capital to invest!!!
SCA is exchange traded debt with a 5.75% coupon. Maturity is September 2022. It is on sale, and a buy right now.
(The stock ticker for the company is SCM)
GSBD a holding in the Core Portfolio is a potential buy today. It appears to be forming a bottom and is on sale in our opinion. Here is a link to a recent positive article talking about GSBD.
GSBD is a higher-quality BDC currently paying 9.8% dividend yield with the potential for a dividend increase as well as capital gains from an upcoming rebound in BDC pricing.
December 21, 2018. We may be reaching the capitulation levels that we talked about a few days ago. The markets are really looking terrible. When all the sellers flush out, we may see a turnaround. One we follow is saying to expect an additional 15% decline. OUCH.
If you have nerves of steel, virtually everything is on sale. The ‘seasoned’ experts out there with extensive experience are telling dividend investors to hold on.
Below is a link to an excellent article from one of the top advisors:
Furthermore, lower future interest rate hikes mean that demand for high dividend stocks is set to increase, supporting prices. It’s time for investors to shift their investment strategy and allocate more funds to those sectors. Yesterday’s winners are likely to be tomorrow’s losers, and those stocks that underperformed in the past two years are set to shine. Investors are best served by allocating to the highest-quality stocks for each sector. It’s time to get defensive with high-dividend stocks.
We are going to wait for the technical indicators to turn up before adding to positions, or buying new investments.
UPDATE: NSS is in the bargain bin and on SALE. BUY. It goes exdividend Dec 28 so be sure and get in before that date. Keep in mind NSS could go lower, but it is still a buy right now. It actually went up a bit today. Below from Twitter:
For some reason I keep envisioning Trump walking into this presser and saying “Jay, you’re fired. I’m sorry, you’re fired.”
Then going to the podium and saying “Jay is a great person, has a beautiful wife, very smart man, but I will find someone who is going to do a great job.”
1:54 PM – Dec 19, 2018
Despite another downer today, Wednesday, we have decided to just stick it out and continue holding. Most of our positions are ‘term’ and will mature returning our money PLUS dividends.
December 19, 2018. The Fed speaks today and the consensus is a small rate hike. We shall see.
The technical indicators are still indicating DOWN action. Generally speaking, when you start approaching 15% declines in the averages, you will see a capitulation. Investors ‘can’t take it anymore’ and they all get out.
We are speculating that capitulation is coming and a bottom will be reached within the next month or two. But as we have said for years, our crystal ball is broken. So we just have to wait and watch.
There is no question the pain has been unbearable over the last two months. We are still evaluating holdings to determine if it makes sense to sell and get out. The other option is to wait for a POTENTIAL bounce, and then get out at higher prices. A third option is to BUY NOW at these depressed prices: you really need guts to do this: “buy when there is blood in the streets”.
So far, we are KEEPING all holdings.
NOTE TO NEW READERS: Before you buy anything we discuss here, GO to the Core Portfolio tab to see a CURRENT listing of holdings.
There is an excellent ‘positive’ article on SeekingAlpha.com talking about two of our positions in the Core Portfolio. We suggest you read it….link below.
December 17, 2018. Everyone (or at least those interested in the financial markets) are watching to see what the Fed says in their upcoming meeting this week. We have to think they will try and present a ‘very favorable’ spin….but still hike rates. No Fed Chair wants to be responsible for a recession!!!
The other major issue is the China tariff situation. There are indications that China wants to cooperate with Trump. Depending on whether you listen to FOX or those ‘others’, the tariff wars are not as dire as presented in fake news. We shall see.
And more news that people are really scared: Investors ARE running for the exits. We read that $46 Billion has been pulled from markets in the last week, the largest in history.
So, is this a really bad correction, or the slide into a bear market??. If the Fed gives us positive statements, and China cooperates, (we DO expect both) the market may start trending upward.
(We already knew this.)…..People like their porn LOLOL. Amazing Stats. Link to full article below.
It is not surprising whatsoever that millions of people have a pornography addiction. To be more specific: There are over 125 million daily visits to Pornhub sites, according to Pornhub’s research and analysis blog, Pornhub Insights.
NETFLIX UPDATE: Bodyguard is one of the best series on Netflix. This think moves so fast, you really have to pay attention. It is about the murder of a politician in Britain, and the war veteran that becomes her bodyguard. Netfix has been heavily promoting ROMA, their new offering. Roma is boring and certainly NOT worth your time.
MOVIES: Deadpool2. Probably the worst movie of all time. Stay away.
The conservative Weekly Standard closes. The co founder William Kristol was a real A-hole and they got what they deserved.
A key member of the “Never Trump” conservative media universe will soon be nevermore: The Weekly Standard is shutting down.
December 14, 2018. In the investing game, all you have to do is watch XLF. That’s right folks. It is very simple. The markets follow the banks….XLF. And guess what. The banks have been in a downward trend since March!!. (about 14%) AND they are still declining. If you have been holding XLF you are in trouble.
And the trend is down.
IF anyone ever asks you what the market is doing, just tell them to look at XLF.
It also appears we may not get the year end Santa Claus rally. WE ARE GETTING CONCERNED.
Today, all positions are being evaluated. We are going to start looking at TOTAL RETURN on holdings and determine if we can sell at break-even levels: ie: do the principle and dividend payments added together allow us to sell without losing anything. As we have mentioned numerous times, we are not going to get caught like we did in the 2008 financial nightmare.
TO CLARIFY, WE ARE NOT selling anything right now. But it is prudent to start watching. (The futures are down 200 as we watch this. Scary.)
We are not panic sellers meaning getting out at the bottom. But we are concerned.
lol USA rated at bottom of list for download speeds. Sad.
December 13, 2018. Several years back, we were following Tim McPartland in a financial website called The Yield Hunter. He offered, for free, portfolios that included income generating positions such as baby bonds and term preferreds: the kind of stuff we like.
Well, his website was sold off and it appears Tim was writing for this new site.
Quite by chance, we have learned that he started a NEW website way back in January 2018. Much to our surprise.
If you are interested in getting his perspective and access to the portfolios, we STRONGLY SUGGEST you bookmark his site. He tends to be very conservative.
Two portfolios are presented and we prefer the ‘medium duration portfolio’. You will notice he holds many of the same positions as we have in the Core Portfolio. Note that access is free and his portfolios are public domain. If we see any positions that look promising, we will be buying.
Wednesday December 12, 2018. When the bond king, Jeff Gundlach talks, we listen. Rate hikes, China tariffs, and Trump hostile White House meetings, get the news coverage, but most people do not understand that the Fed is reducing their balance sheet by 50 BILLION a month……this is negatively affecting the stock market. Go to link below.
Will we get a Santa Claus rally this year? The funds are ‘window’ dressing their portfolios to make them look better to investors as we head toward the end of the year. The futures are up 200 as we write this.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday on an investor webcast that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is likely to go below its February 2018 lows.
December 10, 2018. We bought IRM in the Core Portfolio on October 29. It is already up 3% and also pays a very nice 7%. Listed below is a link to a very positive article on IRM…some of the content is pasted below. Since we already purchased at a lower price we would not necessarily buy this right now.
IRM is one of our Top Picks in the REIT space today because:
The business durability is widely underestimated, and it opens an opportunity to buy shares on the cheap.
The valuation multiple of just 11.4x is ignoring the high value of IRM’s brand, its relationships, and the opportunity to upsell clients as they transition towards digital data.
The management is bullish on its growth prospects with 4% minimum dividend hikes until 2020; and an accelerated growth rate thereafter.
The shares are currently yielding a hefty 7.2% with 85% payout ratio – making the total return proposition very attractive in today’s environment.
Even ignoring the potential appreciation from FFO multiple expansion, we are happy to hold a growing 7.2% yield. When you add to that a realistic shot at earning 30% upside, IRM becomes a screaming STRONG BUY.
One of the stock market gurus that we listen to every day is strongly stating that stocks are in a bottoming process. Well, we hope so. But when we look at the charts, we do NOT see that. In fact the longer term momentum indicators are pointing DOWN.
Yes we have been hit by the declines in the last two months, but we are NOT down the 10% that you see in SPY for example. We continue holding the term bonds that have been in the Core Portfolio for years and years….and MOST IMPORTANTLY the dividends keep coming in. We are 7% in cash vs 50% with the guru mentioned above!!
Keep in mind Trump is facing huge problems and he is going to do everything he can to stabilize the markets and keep his supporters happy.
This blog is designed for those seeking income. We are NOT looking for appreciation thru stocks.
Marvel’s Daredevil is truly one of the best series on Netflix. Daredeveil is blind and along with his two cohorts, tries to alleviate crime in New York’s Hell’s Kitchen. There are three seasons, and will move to a new streaming service for upcoming episodes. If you do not get Netflix, we strongly recommend it. And it is so inexpensive. Also check out NYTimes.com/watching where you can sign up for a newsletter which reviews programs on all streaming services.
The Clinton’s are so corrupt that we love to pass along the frequent stories that we see. The liberal press ignores anything bad relating to Hillary, but Trump is right. She is crooked. Link to full article is below.
Kessel told MDA “There is no controlling Bill Clinton. He does whatever he wants and runs up incredible expenses with foundation funds, according to MDA’s account of the interview. “Bill Clinton mixes and matches his personal business with that of the foundation. Many people within the foundation have tried to caution him about this but he does not listen, and there really is no talking to him.”
MDA compiled Kessel’s statements, as well as over 6,000 pages of evidence from a whistleblower they had been working with separately, and which they filed secretly over a year ago with the FBI and IRS. MDA has alleged that the Clinton Foundation engaged in illegal activities, and may owe millions in unpaid taxes and penalties.
In addition to the IRS, the firm’s partners have had contact with prosecutors in the main Justice Department in Washington and FBI agents in Little Rock, Ark. And last week, a federal prosecutor suddenly asked for documents from their private investigation.
The memo also claims Kessel confirmed to the private investigators that private lawyers reviewed the foundation’s practices — once in 2008 and the other in 2011 — and each found widespread problems with governance, accounting and conflicts of interest.
“I have addressed it before and, let me tell you, I know where all the bodies are buried in this place,” the memo alleges Kessel said.