As noted above, the “bear market” will NOT be over until the credit market is fixed. We are a long way from that being done, given the blowout in yields currently occurring.
In the meantime, use rallies to raise cash. Don’t worry about trying to “buy the bottom.” There will be plenty of time to see “THE” bottom is in, and having cash will allow you to “buy stocks” from the last of the “weak hands.”
Monday March 30, 2020. HUGE short squeeze last week. Got a suckers’ rally and you could have done well by ‘day trading’. We were continually thinking about trading the 2X inverse funds. But not having the guts to take on the risk, we sat on the sidelines.
We did buy a very tiny position in gold, and also continue holding GGN which has been in the Portfolio forever.
We will be BUYING A SMALL position in GDX the gold miners.
It is quite stunning to see the numerous advisors out there shouting that you should buy stocks. We do NOT agree, and see further declines coming long term.
This is the end of the month with large funds positioning their portfolios. This week should be relatively flat with further declines in April.
Common sense tells you that with the country essentially shut down, you cannot see continued gains.
When we start coming out of this epidemic, the forward looking stock market WILL probably indicate a buying opportunity (maybe later this year)
Here is a very interesting article that we came across Friday. FULL ARTICLE
SCPA’s long term 100% probability forecast is for all eight of the global indices to bottom between September and November of 2022. The probability is 100% for the markets of the countries to decline by a minimum of 79% below their 2020 highs and 50% for 89% below 2020 highs.
Everyone should take advantage of the Bear market rally that is currently underway to GET OUT OF THE MARKET! The bear who has arrived could potentially be more vicious than the 1929 bear market.
We just learned yesterday that the FDA has approved hydroxychloroquine.
Here is an interesting article.