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TIME TO GET SERIOUS

February 10, 2020 We are now becoming seriously concerned about the financial markets status.

There are numerous indicators (not to mention the coronavirus) indicating a recession/pullback is coming. Last week, China and the U.S, infused 668 BILLION DOLLARS into the system which IS DRIVING STOCKS HIGHER.

But copper, oil, and others are collapsing. We are holding our oil positions for the dividends, with the assumption oil will eventually go higher.

We are SELLING SMHB, THE LEVERAGED SMALL CAP position. The loss is relatively minor: we never should have bought this dog. It is going LOWER.

We are not saying a recession is starting tomorrow. We are not saying the world is coming to an end. Simply be cautious. We are holding the corporate bonds, the preferred stocks, and other bonds in the Core Portfolio.

—————–Do you have exposure to Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, McDonalds, YUM, Starbucks, Nike, Calvin Klein, Hilfiger, big casino companies????? We would be selling as these outfits have big exposure to China. ARTICLE

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JPMorgan expects huge ramifications if coronavirus does not abate. WE are concerned!!!

Which is why those who believe in a V-shaped recovery will be wise to keep an eye on when China’s cases start to decline, as “a more adverse scenario would result if the contagion does not peak until April and factories remain shuttered for at least another week, lengthening the disruption to production, transportation, and shipping.”

In that situation, JPMorgan expects GDP and IP to contract outright in 1Q, plunging to -3.9% and -11.6% q/q saar, respectively, a drop that could potentially trigger a global recession, with modest growth in 2Q and a full recovery delayed until 3Q. ARTICLE

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Most of our readers could care less about Illinois except for us who live here. But the migration out of the state is reflective of other states including NY and CA. The Democrap liberals and their high tax rates are killing selected states: you better think twice before voting for Sanders et al.

We’re often told that Illinois is not losing its highly taxed residents. For example, a Chicago Magazine article last week had a headline saying exactly that. Don’t worry about lost income from the rich leaving, we’re supposed to believe. It’s just poorer folks fleeing.

It’s simply not true. There’s recent, hard data directly refuting that claim. If you want the best evidence, the Internal Revenue Service released its latest state-to-state migration numbers last month. Wirepoints analyzed the number of people moving into and out of Illinois and their net impact by income groups.

The data show that while lower income groups are fleeing Illinois in somewhat larger numbers, bigger earners are leaving, too. And they’re the ones that account for the overwhelming share of wealth lost by the state.

Specifically, tax filers with income over $200,000 made up 11% of all filers who fled, and they accounted for over half of the income that left Illinois. ARTICLE

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