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OUT ON A LIMB

December 27, 2019. GBDC GOLUB We bought GBDC in October and it is already up 3%. Here is a positive article that was published today.

EPR is going ex-dividend Monday and we MAY be buying as a new position. We still anticipate a pull-back in Jan/Feb and it may be smart to just wait before making any decisions.

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We keep repeating that ‘you should be diligent.’ in your portfolios. Markets keep going straight up, and we all know this cannot go on forever. Here is some copy from a seekingalpha.com article talking about a possible pull-back in January.

The S&P 500 is now trading in rarified air. Never mind the fact that the benchmark index is now trading around its highest post crisis multiple at more than 24.3 times trailing 12-month GAAP earnings, as valuations often do not matter until they suddenly matter a whole lot. Not only are stocks now heavily overbought on both a relative strength and momentum basis, but the S&P 500 also is trading more than +4% above its 50-day (blue line in the chart above), +9% above its 200-day (red line), and +12% above its 400-day (pink line) moving averages.

U.S. stocks are now primed for a correction. The S&P 500 has traded at or above these premia to its moving averages on only three prior occasions over the past six calendar year. The first took place in January 2014, and U.S. stocks subsequently corrected by more than -6%. The next occurred in early March 2017, and stocks proceeded to fall by more than -3% over the next month. The third came in January 2018, and stocks subsequently fell by -12% in struggling over the next three months.

When should we expect this stock correction to take place? Not right away. It’s Christmas time, and Santa Claus is likely to continue delivering in full for the U.S. stock market at least through the start of 2020. If history is any guide, investors reasonably should not expect any potential correction to take hold until the second full week of January roughly three weeks from now. This gives stocks time to consolidate recent gains if the S&P 500 trades sideways from here. Conversely, this also gives stocks the chance to reach an even higher perch from which to correct if the S&P 500 continues to rise.

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Have you ever heard of Democrap Tom Steyer? Spending 81 MILLION and still at 1% in polls. LOLOL.

Democrat billionaire and impeachment obsessive Tom Steyer has spent over $81,000,000 on campaign ads according to numbers released by CNN via Kantar.

The climate change champion, however, is polling at an average of just 1.3 per cent according to RealClearPolitics’ average.

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We continued to learn more about the long-term effects of vaping and e-cigarette use Monday. A first-of-its kind study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine found that even moderately extended use of e-cigarettes raise users’ risk for lung illnesses and respiratory conditions like chronic obstructive respiratory disease (COPD) and asthma. FULL ARTICLE

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Since we are heavy bond investors this chart was interesting. As beginning investors back in the ancient 1980s, we had NO knowledge of bonds. So the chart showing the lack of knowledge in bonds in not real surprising. FULL ARTICLE

“I do not understand it at all” with regard to the following types of bonds: Treasuries, 39%; municipal bonds, 45%; high-yield bonds, 46%; corporate bonds, 51%; structured products, 53%; Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, 63%.

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