Update: For some odd reason, Kiplinger sometimes releases, for FREE, their income investing newsletter. Full of info, including a list of 25 income issues to buy.
November 20, 2018, We are down over 2% in the Core Portfolio. Compared to the general indices like SPY (down over 10%) this is not bad. But that does not alleviate the severe pain that we are feeling. (The futures are down another 300 this morning as we write this.)
The major problem, the tariff situation with China, specifically, has to get resolved. Most gurus seem to think the markets will sky-rocket if Trump obtains some sort of deal.
We continue holding the Core Portfolio. It appears that WHFBZ may start trading this week, and we are buyers.
It may be time to get into marijuana stocks. We are NOT buying, (at least right now) but here is an article talking about a potential holding.
If you look at history, the months following midterm elections are very favorable. Here is a good article which describes what has happened in the past, and what we MAY see going forward into 2019.
If history is any guide, investors can look forward to some good news after the midterms: A stock market rally. Every midterm election over the past 60 years has been followed by a rise in stocks, sometimes called a “relief rally,” market research shows.
Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has jumped an average of 16 percent the year following a midterm election, according to Capital Economics. And on Wednesday, as if on cue, stocks soared, with the S&P 500 and Dow indexes each gaining around 2 percent by mid-afternoon.
John Lynch, chief investment strategist at LPL Financial Research, crunched the numbers for the 18 midterm elections since 1946. In each case, the S&P 500 (or its equivalent) had gained significantly a year after the election — regardless of the results.
While historical patterns don’t predict the future, these trends may offer solace to investors whipsawed by the volatile trading last month. One reason for the October slump, analysts say: Markets are pricing in pre-election uncertainty.
Once the votes are tallied, “that uncertainty is eliminated, [and] we know what the playing field looks like,” Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, told CBS MoneyWatch this week. The specific results, in other words, are less important than knowing what the results are.
Why gridlock is “good”
Investors can also take comfort knowing the spending climate in Washington has been fairly steady, regardless of which party is in charge. “People focus so much on the election, but how much of the budget is fixed? 80, 85 percent,” said LPL’s Lynch.
Under a Republican president and a split Congress—the outcome expected by most political and economic forecasters—the S&P 500 has generated an average return of 15 percent, according to LPL.
The lesson? Although government gridlock is often denounced by citizens and politicians alike, it isn’t bad news for markets.
“If politicians don’t change the rules of the game and the rules of doing business too much, businesses can have at least a little bit of a longer horizon,” Slok said. © 2018 CBS Interactive Inc.. All Rights Reserved.
Wow this is scary shit. But nobody seems to give a damn.