June 4, 2018. We purchased WPC in March and it is already up 10% with today’s price at $67.42
WPC follows a wave motion: it has a history of hitting $72, dropping back down, and heading up again to $72.
We fully expect WPC to hit $72 again at which point we will SELL….and will buy again when it drops. It also pays 6%.
Stock market is now in the ‘worst’ stretch of the presidential cycle.
The Presidential Cycle refers to the pattern of behavior in stock prices throughout the four years of a presidential term. While there are many factors influencing stock prices during a particular period of a particular presidential term, it has been one of the more historically consistent seasonal patterns. Specifically, stocks tend to be strong during certain periods of a president’s term and weaker during others. And, historically, the worst 2-quarter stretch of the presidential cycle is the period spanning the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the second year of a president’s term. The stretch began this week.
Over the past 100 years, average returns in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for both the 2nd and 3rd quarters of “year 2’s” have been negative, the only consecutive negative quarters of the entire cycle.
We have repeatedly talked about the ‘fake’ job numbers. The government and the press are talking about the great employment rate but in fact this is a lot of nonsense. Here is a current article talking about the REAL situation:
According to the Fed, there were 6,065,000 working age Americans unemployed in May.
That would be an excellent number if it was an honest number. But of course that number does not tell the whole story.
We also have to factor in the other category of working age Americans that are not currently employed. They are not considered to be “officially unemployed” because they are considered to be “not in the labor force”.
According to the Federal Reserve, 95,915,000 working age Americans were “not in the labor force” in May.
That is an all-time record high, and this is how the federal government has been making the employment numbers look so good. The number of Americans that are “officially unemployed” keeps going down, and the number of Americans “not in the labor force” keeps going up.
When you add 6,065,000 and 95,915,000 together, you come up with a grand total of 101,980,000 working age Americans that do not have a job right now.
So we essentially have 102 million working age Americans that are not employed, and that is the same level that we had four years ago.
And back during the peak of the last recession, the number of working age Americans without a job never surpassed the 100 million mark.
That means that there are more working age Americans without a job right now than there was at any point during the last recession.
All of those economic optimists out there should chew on that number for a while.
According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used our unemployment rate would be somewhere around 21 percent at the moment. That is a slight improvement from the 22 percent level that we were at not too long ago, but it is not nearly good enough.