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WE STILL HAVE THE DEATH CROSS

February 24, 2016

The 50 day moving average is still below the 200 day moving average…..the “death cross”….a well known BEARISH pattern very familiar to chart watchers such as ourselves.  Do not be suckered into buying stocks right now.  The death cross suggests there is more pain to come.

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings:  All positions were purchased at specific prices and are on HOLD and should not be purchased now unless otherwise indicated.

February 23. 2016

We have seen a nice short covering rally.  But until we see NEW money coming in ie stimulus or some event to drive stock prices higher, we would anticipate the stock market will head back down.  So don’t get excited about buying stocks.  Of course something could happen to drive up prices BUT we do not see that in the cards.  We have been telling you for a LONG time to stay away from stocks as we feel you could get hurt.

Having said all that, it looks like they WILL try and move the stock market higher, at least temporarily.  Unless you are an experienced trader that can take advantage of these swings, stay away.

We are holding cash and bonds.

Annuities and life insurance are NOT investments.  They are scams.

NATIONAL DEBT:  THIS IS YOU!!!!!

Debt per Citizen

$58,581

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings:  All positions were purchased at specific prices and are on HOLD and should not be purchased now unless otherwise indicated.

 

 

February 19, 2016

Purchased Time Warner Cable Indiv. Corporate Bond

Cusip 88732JBA5 Mature 9-21 (3.5%)  The yield on corporates really suck but we would rather be safe than sorry.  Corporate bonds act similar to a Treasury:  if you hold to maturity you get your money back in addition to the yield payments.  Of course the risk is default of the Company ie going broke.

The economy is very bad despite what you hear in the media.  We are in capital preservation mode.  Scroll down to see more articles and visuals.

More advice from realinvestmentadvice.com:

As I have repeatedly discussed over the last couple of weeks, the market has NOW BROKEN the long-term trend. Such a change in TREND is critical and suggests that the bull market advance that began in 2009 is over.  As discussed throughout the entirety of this week’s missive, the technical damage to the market is significant.

Last week’s rally was enough to warrant reducing portfolio allocations to TARGET levels. As discussed in detail above, we are now in a position to just WAIT and allow the market to TELL us what it wants to do next.

While many will speculate on a resumption of a “bull market” in the short-term, the RISK of being WRONG far outweighs the possibility that such prognostications are correct. However, in the event the market does reverse course, and re-establish a bull trend, we will simply increase equity allocations back up accordingly.

February 18, 2016

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings:  All positions were purchased at specific prices and are on HOLD and should not be purchased now unless otherwise indicated.

 

Don’t get suckered into buying stocks.  There is nothing out there that will drive the market higher.  Also, don’t start buying oil.  We feel oil will go lower.  The best thing to do right now is SIT TIGHT AND DO NOTHING.

“Others agree that crude oil is vulnerable to another leg down. “We still think the massive inventories in the U.S. could bring down the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil one more time in the next few months, possibly to the lower end of that $20 to $25 range,” says Elliott Gue, co-editor of Energy & Income Advisor in McLean, Virginia.”

February 16, 2016

Last week we said the oil situation could change everything.

And now we see the biggies trying to stabilize oil, and the markets are up.

BUT we remain primarily in corporate bonds, baby bonds, niche bond funds, cash and some gold.  We continue trying to find investment grade corporates that are paying a decent yield.  (scroll down for the recent addition.)  Just today we received a bunch of distributions from our corporate holdings.

Jeffrey Gundlach, the fund manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, said in a conference that the dollar would fall in 2016 while the euro may strengthen. Gundlach also believes that the Fed will hike the interest rate in March 2016.

Gundlach went on to say that “the whole question for me is when am I going to buy enormous amounts of corporate credit because it’s crystal clear that that’s the next opportunity that’s out there. There’s plenty of things out there that will have 100% returns.”

In looking at the charts, momentum is down long term.

But we would not be shocked to see them try and bump up prices short term.  If you a good stock trader you could probably do ok short term.

If you want to read our stuff favorite this site:  we rarely send emails.

Please take our ten second POLL 

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings:  All positions were purchased at specific prices and are on HOLD and should not be purchased now unless otherwise indicated.

Go here to see our suggested financial websites.

Contact Us.

usa2014

 

February 12, 2016

BUYING investment grade Southern Copper Corporate Bonds.  Cusip 84265VAH8  Maturity April 2025.  5.43%

Update Thursday: We are very happy to see that the order on PRH got filled.  This is a quality income issue that we plan on holding for years.  We should have never sold this sucker:  even if it goes down further, we will hold.

The market is crashing and we feel that there is ADDITIONAL DOWNSIDE in stocks.  We are thinking about using SH to short the market.  Still holding our single gold position GGN:  hooray

Do not follow all the bullcrap articles talking about buying stocks at bargain prices.  Stocks CAN GO LOWER….LOL.  Do nothing right now.  CNBC is an educational tool but never invest based on the biased bs that they spew out.

THE BIG QUESTION:  WILL THEY INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION AS HAS BEEN RUMORED.  THAT WOULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.

_____

From realinvestmentadvice.com

“Of course, falling rates means the ongoing “bond bull market” will remain intact for another year. In fact, if my outlook is correct, bonds will likely be one of the best performing asset classes in the next year.”

_____

From FactCheck.org

Donald Trump said he “heard” the unemployment rate was really 42%. It’s not. That figure would include retirees, teenagers, stay-at-home parents and anyone else who doesn’t need or want to work.

The unemployment rate is actually 4.9% for January.

If Trump wanted to include the underemployed (part-time workers wanting full-time work) and the “marginally attached” (those who have given up looking for a job but had looked for one in the past year), then he could use 9.9% as his number for the underemployed and the unemployed. That’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “U-6″ measurement of labor underutilization, its most comprehensive statistic on those who are underemployed or unemployed but want to work.

Feb 9, 2016

Update:  We cannot get a break on PRH.  We were stupid in selling last year.  And when we tried to buy on a dip, we missed it yesterday.  We should have bought at $25.17.  We maintain a buy now at $25.17 but do NOT expect to get filled. 

(Also watching GBAB for buy in IRA)

Back in 2014 we bought PRH and made the mistake of selling it later.  We have been watching for a bargain in PRH and it appears to have almost arrived.

We are placing a limit buy order at $25.10.  But you can buy anywhere close to $25.00.  Right now it is at $25.17

Pasted below is our ORIGINAL BUY discussion:

Buy at $24.75 and under $25.00

Prudential Financial 5.7% Junior Subordinated Notes PRH is debt that trades on the stock exchange.  It trades like a stock.  The income is distributed quarterly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PRH

PRH gives provides you a good investment at low risk which is why you are seeing a somewhat low yield BUT its certainly better than a CD or Treasury.  PRH can be called in 2018 at $25.00 which is HIGHER than what you are going to pay…what a great deal.

I really like Exchange Traded Debt and have had good luck over the years.

Can you believe this number:  $747 Billion in assets.  Wow.  Prudential Financial, Inc. is an insurance and investment management organization headquartered in Newark, New Jersey. As of March 31, 2014, the company had total assets of $747 billion and total shareholders’ equity of $39 billion.

Bottom Line:  Unless Prudential goes belly up which is most unlikely you have very little risk and a pretty good yield

Please take our ten second POLL 

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings:  All positions were purchased at specific prices and are on HOLD and should not be purchased now unless otherwise indicated.

Go here to see our suggested financial websites.

Contact Us.

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