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October 21, 2015

#8 And remember, there are 102.6 million working age Americans that do not even have a job of any kind.



We are now entering the ‘seasonally attractive’ November-May period.  During the last 59 years, the markets rose 44 times and declined 15 times.  So it is obvious that this is NOT a great indicator.  But many advisors out there still invest based on this seasonal trend.



I just finished reading an article in seekingalpha.com by an investor that was patting himself on the back for building a portfolio that was giving him wonderful levels of dividends.

Sounds great.  UNTIL you read thru his list if investments……..he is in 100% stocks!!!!!!!!!.  OMG.

This guy is totally in stocks.  IN THIS ENVIRONMENT????   Scary stuff.  If he wants to take this high level of risk, so be it.  But it’s not our style.

Folks listen up.  NEVER have 100% of your positions in stocks.  It is dangerous.  If the stock market declines or tanks the author will LOSE all that he made in dividends to make up for his stock losses.  You must have a mix of investments.  We like corporate bonds, debt issues, and some select bond funds.  Go to Core Portfolio.

As far as stocks go, yes we may see continued increases going into Winter.  But the economic foundation is weak and we still see declines coming.  We do NOT like investing in stocks right now.


PRH.  Prudential.  5.5%  Exchange Traded Debt Security.  We have seen excellent results from PRH which is in the Core Portfolio. Place a BUY limit good till cancelled order for $24.93.  DO NOT BUY NOW.  This goes ex dividend at the end of November and you need to wait for the price to come BACK DOWN…debt issues will usually, not always, drop down in price after going ex dividend.

We suggest a significant purchase, up to 4 or 5% of the portfolio.  Can be called in March 2018.

Please take our ten second POLL  GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings.


From zerohedge.com

All economic indicators are flashing red and warning of recession. Retail sales, that account for two thirds of economic activity, are falling. Corporate profits are plunging. Middle class Americans haven’t seen their household income rise since 1989. The last two employment reports were horrific. The number of  job layoff announcements by corporations is up 36% year to date and has already exceeded the total for 2014.


Drudge Poll Democratic Debate.   Clinton Dies.  Sanders and Webb get 79% of vote.  Wow.

Who Won the October 13 Democratic Debate?

As a reminder we rarely send out ‘push’ emails.  If you are on the ‘follow’ list, we suggest you now favorite this site and check in when convenient. 

This new irregular pushing of email updates schedule is due to time constraints on our end.  But we try to update this site every day or two.

GO HERE for CURRENT positions in the Core Portfolio

EMQ  5.8% Entergy Mississippi Place buy limit good until cancelled order under $25.  Goes ex-dividend the end of October and we may get lucky for a price at $25.

(Update:  Cancel  We may buy later.)  WHFBL This is exchange traded debt or ‘baby bond’ from a Business Development Company.  Buy a small amount.  Do not pay more than $24.51.  6.6%


We now have 50 positions in the Core Portfolio.  Most of them are debt, corporates, baby bonds, defined maturity corporate funds and specialty bond funds.  We do have energy positions and they are, thankfully, starting to show signs of life.  Boy it has been hard holding these oil bonds.  We have had extremely good luck with Corporates over the years, with only ONE default….and that was a very small amount.  The energy corporates positions are underwater but at this point we are NOT concerned…and they continue to pay dividends.

BUY NTI .  15.3%  NTI is a refiner.  Buy a small position.  They pay very high dividends but we anticipate the dividends will trend lower..but trending lower from a high level.  But that’s ok.

BUY ABBVIE Corporate Bonds.  ABBVIE is a maker of prescription drugs.  Price is 100.129 and yield is 3.179%.  Not a great yield but we are seeking safety and that also means lower yields.  Prices will fluctuate so hold these to maturity which is November 2022.

CUSIP  00287YAP4

BUY order for NEWTZ at 25.01.  We may NOT get this as the price spiked way up this week.  Keep the order in place.

BUY TGARP.  Midstream Natural Gas.  Go to link for infor.  This is a temporary ticker for this issue.  Buy SMALL amount.


There is a new book out:  Unlikeable The Problem With Hillary by Ed Klein.  This is JUST TOO MUCH FUN.  Get your copy right now, you will love the stories on the true Hillary.  Page 10 is sweet.

Arlington Capital Management a registered investment advisor, publishes a weekly discussion of the markets.  This is a must read for investors who want a realistic evaluation of the stock market.


Go to Core Portfolio for current positions.


We have looked at over half dozen potential dividend positions during the past week.  We want to buy yield producing investments, but everything we look at is low quality or high risk OR way over-priced.  This is really frustrating.  The oil energy positions are finally starting to show life so maybe we should be happy about that.

We ARE looking at some refiners and may be buying.

This blog is not into buying stocks altho we are seeing short covering and everyone seems to think that we are headed higher.  Yes we may go higher SHORT TERM, but long term we see declines.  BUT keep in mind that this corrupt administration will do everything in their power to get the markets up to ensure that Hillary or another liberal is elected next year.  (The corrupt Republicans would do the same thing.)

UPDATE:  We placed a BUY LIMIT GOOD UNTIL CANCELLED order for NEWTZ baby bond at $25.01.  We may get it, maybe not.  But we are not going to pay much more than $25.  It actually hit $25 today but we missed it.

FRIDAY UPDATE:  You cant make up this shit.  The awful jobs report is now projected to force the FED to delay any rate hikes by the FED.  SO this means the stock market will most likely head UP…the stock market does NOT like rising rates.  Goes to show you how this economy is so screwed up.

We are not going anywhere near buying stocks here.  It is just too dangerous to try and forecast whats going to happen.  We typically do NOT buy stocks that pay dividends.  The RISK is just too high, especially right now.  There are numerous other ways to earn yield without taking the risk of losing your principle with stocks.  Yes stocks have been good for years but the environment is changing.  Be careful.

There is a “baby bond” coming out in the next few weeks that we will be buying.

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings. We are primarily in corporate bonds and baby bonds, and other selected bonds.

UPDATE:  Bad news keeps coming.  The jobs report today is awful and numerous Companies are announcing humongous layoffs and job cuts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that a record 94,610,000 people (ages 16 and over) were not in the labor force in September. In other words they were neither employed nor had made specific efforts to find work in the prior four weeks.

The number of individuals out of the work force last month — due to discouragement, retirement or otherwise — represented a substantial 579,000 person increase over the most recent record, hit in August, of 94,031,000 people out of the workforce.

While the prior two months saw a labor force participation rate of 62.2 percent, September’s participation rate dropped to 62.4 percent, matching the lowest level seen since October 1977.

More bad news from zerohedge.com

Sarcasm aside, this left just 118K for the private sector. Of this 118K, 78% went to low/minimum-wage paying jobs: Leisure and Hospitality was 30% of the total, adding 35K jobs, 25% was for education and health, more minimum wages, with Retail and Temp Help rounding out the remaining 23% in “gains.”  Meanwhile jobs which actually pay good wages, mining and logging, manufacturing and wholesale trade, all declined in September.

UPDATE:  We are SELLING BKLN and PFLT.  As we have said we are in preservation mode.  Having lost money in the 2008/09 travesty, we are not going to go thru that heartache again.  We are actively looking to reduce exposure.  We are also watching to buy SH when the time is right.  SH is a ETF that shorts the market and you will make money if the market declines, which we think is possible.

Bottom line, we suggest raising cash.  You can always get back in long or short depending on what the charts tell us to do.


There is a new book out:  Unlikeable The Problem With Hillary by Ed Klein.  This is JUST TOO MUCH FUN.  Get your copy right now, you will love the stories on the true Hillary.  Page 10 is sweet.


UPDATE:  BUY NEWTZ if you can get it at $25.00 or pretty close.  Do NOT pay much more than 25.


Other than buying a few Corporate Bonds, we have been doing nothing in the Core Portfolio.  Simply watching and waiting.  We continue holding the select bond funds, corporates and baby bonds.

The stock market started to really dive in late July and we have continuously told you to get out of stocks. 

The market is in a downward spiral and will continue declining as we see NO catalyst that can reverse the trend……UNLESS they bring in another Quantitative Easing which more and more people are talking about. 

And yet many financial advisors tell people to hold stock positions.

In retrospect we should have been shorting with SH but that route can be dangerous.

Yes if you are an educated stock trader, of course you can make money in this market.  But unless you have extensive experience, stay out.  We will have up days, like today (Sept 30) , but LONG term we think the stock market will trend down…..we have been in consolidation mode for a month.

We are looking at a Business Development Company and another baby bond to buy and will advise if we take action.  But the way things are looking, it is very difficult to convince ourselves to seriously consider adding positions.


Dip shit finally leaves:

WASHINGTON — Speaker John A. Boehner, under intense pressure from conservatives in his party, will resign one of the most powerful positions in government and give up his House seat at the end of October, throwing Congress into chaos as it tries to avert a government shutdown.

September 22, 2015

(Update:  Yesterday we subscribed to a NEW financial newsletter from a respected advisor that we have followed for years.  Shocking that they are advising almost 30% in stocks.  The stock market is collapsing and they are telling people to buy stocks!!!!!  We have subscribed to virtually dozens of newsletters over the years and almost ALL of them are crap.  Be aware.  Caterpillar and many Companies continue announcing layoffs.  Terrible news.)  Street talk live is a good site that we like:


Please take our ten second POLL  GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings.

If you have been getting out of stocks and building cash positions, as we have suggested, you may be looking for a safe place to park cash.  You have lousy options like CD’s and money market funds but they are paying close to nothing.

Today we are talking about an ETF that pays over 1%, far better than other income possibilities out there.  This ETF gets into SHORT TERM Treasury Bills, short term Corporate Bonds, and other safe investments.  But do keep in mind this ETF is NOT Federally insured….and the ex-dividend date is usually the first of each month so do not delay if you want to buy. 

Do not pay more than $50.04

It is obvious you are not getting rich with GSY.  It is used simply to earn a few coins with the extra cash that you otherwise are not using.  This is a short term play, hopefully, while we wait for higher paying positions to come into view….altho with this market turmoil, we dont have any idea when the hell this will happen.

We suggest you look at GSY for money that you may need within the next 3-12 months.

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Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration

The Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF* (NYSE: GSY), seeks maximum current income, consistent with preservation of capital and daily liquidity. The Fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in fixed-income securities.

The Fund uses a low duration strategy to seek to outperform the Barclays Capital 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index in addition to providing returns in excess of those available in U.S. Treasury bills, government repurchase agreements, and money market funds, while seeking to provide preservation of capital and daily liquidity. The Fund is not a money market fund and thus does not seek to maintain a stable net asset value of $1.00 per share. The Fund expects, under normal circumstances, to hold a diversified portfolio of fixed-income instruments of varying maturities, but that have an average duration of less than 1 year.


GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings.

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