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WHAT, ME WORRY?

The Gallup poll found that 76 percent of Democratic voters would vote for a socialist. Only 17 percent of Republicans say they would vote for a socialist, and 45 percent of independents would vote for one.

February 28, 2020.  Yesterday we started to feel the stomach pains.  The last time this happened was WAY back in 2008 during the huge financial fiasco.  The broad markets are now down 12% and we ANTICPATE AN ADDTIONAL 10-15% DECLINE.  It looks like we will see further downside today, Friday. 

It is shocking to watch the financial advisors and TV programs telling you to start buying:  the bottom is in.  We disagree.

Additional sales were planned yesterday but the declines were so huge, we just did not want to take the losses.  There may be a rebound next week at which time selling positions may make sense.  The Core Portfolio holds a large number of individual Corporate Bonds with specific maturity dates, and they are virtually unchanged.  The one ‘positive’ aspect is that we continue to receive the dividends from all our holdings.  We ARE building a ‘buy’ list for positions to buy if/when this thing ends.

We are hearing stories this morning about tremendous progress in vaccines and cures that would be available quickly, and this would of course stabilize markets. 

This is an excellent and informative video explaining why socialism has become so popular.

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SHOOT FIRST ASK QUESTIONS LATER

UPDATE:  Due to the enormous declines on Thursday, we decided to wait until Friday to see if the markets will settle down before making any sell decisions.

February 27, 2020.  Yesterday morning while the markets were up 300-400 points, we sold two more positions.  The broad markets ended the day down.  And this morning, the DOW is down around 500 points, which places us in a CORRECTION.

We are really stunned that financial advisors out there are recommending you buy positions.  This is really crazy stuff.  This whole mess reminds us of the tragic 2008 correction.  We stupidly remained invested and suffered because of that moronic decision.  As we have said here numerous times, we are NOT going to make that mistake again.  If you are a young investor, you can afford to ride out corrections and recessions, but as retirees we have to be very conservative.

If you want to reduce exposure to a declining market, one approach is to keep the number of positions, but sell 50% (or some percentage) of EACH position.  And we may be implementing this starting today.  By the way we own numerous corporate bonds and have sold NONE of them so far.

NOW IN OUR 8TH YEAR. NOTE TO NEW READERS: Before you buy anything we discuss here, GO to the Core Portfolio tab to see a CURRENT listing of holdings. Don’t forget to hit the like button.  Our host WordPress is running ads in the blog and we receive NO compensation from this advertising. 

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SELLING AWF

February 26, 2020.  The markets are coming back stronger than we expected today (temporarily) and we want to take advantage of the higher prices.  We have a Total Return of over 8% in AWF. 

SELL AWF

In our opinion, markets are going lower and we have not seen the bottom.  We are not willing to take additional losses:  you want to conserve your money right now.

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SELL NGLPRB

February 26, 2020.  We are getting rid of another energy position, which has come up from it’s lows this morning.

We have a Total Return of 20% when you add in the dividends received.  SELL NGLPRB

 

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GETTING REAL SERIOUS

Wow this hurts.

Image result for sad faceFebruary 26, 2020.  Financial markets are now oversold and we may get a significant rebound in the next few days.  So today is probably not the time to be selling.

BUT, if we see higher highs this week, we will most likely be further reducing our risk by dumping more positions.

LONG TERM:  As income dividend investors, the big issue now is the possibility of companies CUTTING dividends if we see the virus infection spread across the U.S.  Supply lines are being cut all over and if companies don’t have product, and people stay home, there are no profits, and no dividends.  

As stated above, if we can sell at higher prices this week or next (or even today), we WILL BE RAISING CASH.  Don’t be complacent thinking this is the normal run of the mill correction.  This is serious world wide disease, that is not going away soon.  

Don’t listen to these morons on TV telling you to “put cash to work’.  Wow, how stupid can you get.  Unless there are some dramatic changes today which is possible, we are waiting and watching.

 

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INCREASING CASH

February 25, 2020.  Today, we sold an energy position for a tanker company that transports liquified natural gas.  This preferred was not listed in the Core Portfolio.  We made a very nice Total Return profit but demand for LNG is heading down due to the virus situation.  If you own similar positions, you should sell.

The Core Portfolio is now approaching 20% in CASH.

We are seeing a small rebound in the markets today, (as we forecast yesterday) BUT we do anticipate further declines for the financial markets.

We continue evaluating all positions for sell candidates.

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Will we see shortages in Tide and Charmin!!!!

Proctor and Gamble, one of the world’s biggest “everyday product” manufacturers, has now officially warned that 17,600 of its products could be affected and disrupted by the coronavirus. The company’s CFO, Jon Moeller, said at a recent conference that P&G used 387 suppliers across China, shipping more than 9,000 materials, according to CIPS.org.

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Coronavirus hurting tourism.  Who would have thought.  Full Article

.French Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Sunday at the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meetings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that the Covid-19 outbreak will have a material impact on the French economy and the world.
The country’s finance minister warned France’s tourism sector has plunged following the outbreak of the virus last month. “We have fewer tourists, of course, in France, about 30%, 40% less than expected,” Maire said.
“That’s, of course, an important impact for the French economy,” he said. Tourism represents 10% of GDP in the country and supports upwards of 3 million jobs. 

NOW IN OUR 8TH YEAR. NOTE TO NEW READERS: Before you buy anything we discuss here, GO to the Core Portfolio tab to see a CURRENT listing of holdings. Don’t forget to hit the like button. Go Here For “About“ Our host WordPress is running ads in the blog and we receive NO compensation from this advertising.

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UPDATE

BIG SELL OFF TODAY.

Monday.  The income oriented Core Portfolio is now down about ONE FOURTH that of the stock market.  In other words, the stock market is DOWN about four times more than the portfolio.  So that is the good news and about what we would expect.

The Core Portfolio is now just under 18% in cash following the sale of IRM this morning.

We feel, more than likely, that the markets will level off and we may see a rebound HIGHER in the next few days…..so it is not urgent to sell anything right now.

If you have not been following our advice to get out of positions, you should consider selling and raising your cash levels IF we get higher prices this week.  It is our OPINION things will get worse going forward, but that is only our opinion. 

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