(August 1: Stocks continue in this consolidation phase and nobody can tell you if it will break out to the Upside or Downside….but it will eventually. We have been suggesting that you place sell stops for stocks in case the market collapses. Goldman Sachs, Apple, Facebook and IBM are some of the big stocks that will continue downward so beware if you own these. We are smack dab in the middle of the “sell in may and go away period”.
We continue holding the corporate, short term and specialty bonds, and exchange traded debt.)
(July 31: Capital preservation is paramount here. We have been in a consolidation for almost five months and there is NO evident event that will drive markets HIGHER and break out of this stagnant market. We still suggest you place sell stops that will get you out of your positions if the markets tank. We sold PG a few weeks ago at a small profit and yesterday it bombed: just another indication of what can go wrong is this environment. We are not saying you should sell right (unless you have obvious losers) now but do place stops. We ARE selling positions in our personal accounts in an effort to preserve the portfolio…also see Core Portfolio for changes.
(July 30. If the idiots at the Fed raise rates, we are going to see declines. It’s time to fine tune portfolios and GET OUT of positions that are not working. If you do not want to sell right now have stops in that will get you out. Raising cash is probably the prudent thing to do in this weak market. Biotechs are weak, sell. If this market crashes you may want to use SH to short the market….we suggest you get familiar with this easy way to short using an ETF.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 25 per cent of GOP voters want to elect a President Trump, resulting in a double-digit advantage over his nearest rival Jeb Bush
The former Florida governor trails with 12 per cent.
For the first time this year, Donald Trump tops a state poll of GOP presidential candidates in Florida.
A St. Pete Polls survey released on Wednesday shows the New York businessman with 26 percent support, with Jeb Bush in second place with 20 percent.
At first glance, the statement did not appear menacing. I was told I could expect to receive a benefit of “about $2,136 a month” upon reaching age 70 — which certainly seems like good news. But immediately I thought of a parallel of President Obama’s infamous Obamacare promise: “If you like your Social Security, you can keep your Social Security.” ADVERTISEMENT Then, as if on cue, I saw an asterisk with the following message: The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2033, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.
(July 28. From economiccollapse.com: .…….. you can see that the U.S. national debt was sitting at about 9 trillion dollars when we entered the last recession. Since that time, the debt of the federal government has doubled. We are on the exact same path that Greece has gone down, and what you are looking at below is a recipe for national economic suicide… (July 27 Update: What A MESS:
“Demand for automobile debt in the U.S. is enabling lenders to make longer loans to people with spotty credit, stoking concern that car shoppers are being lulled into debt loads they won’t be able to sustain. Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014, according to data from Citigroup Inc. Loans as long as seven years are increasingly being put into more bonds as auto-finance companies and Wall Street banks sell the securities at the fastest pace since 2007.”
(Saturday Update) Technical indicators are telling us that stocks are headed DOWN…at least for the short term. We do not foresee what could change this trend. Many large Companies are showing significant downtrends: IBM, Intel, many others. We have suggested stop loss orders to get you out of stocks if the situation gets worse……….we would not be shocked to see another five or ten percent decline. The ‘sell in May and go away’ axiom would have been good advice this year.
We are still holding all the bond positions in the Core Portfolio as we do NOT see significant rate increases which would hurt bonds. We are also holding the floating rate positions and the other positions that we have listed.)
(Friday Update: We suggest placing sell stops on all stock holdings. You will get out if this stock market tanks. The S&P has dived below the 50 day moving average and we suggest CAUTION. Interest rates will probably come down so we are holding all bonds.) hussmanfunds.com A progressive internal deterioration of the market has been increasingly evident in recent months, and became severe last week. For example, the chart below compares the S&P 500 Index to the same 500 component stocks, but weighted equally rather than by market capitalization. While the difference may not seem significant, it also implies that even an equally-weighted portfolio of S&P 500 stocks, hedged with the S&P 500 index itself, would have lost several percent since mid-April. “It wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark.” – Howard Ruff “You have to think anyway, so why not think big?” Donald Trump (Thursday Update: We suggest raising cash, even if you have to sell losing positions. (We are not selling the bonds and debt issues—rates will probably come down.) It appears they are driving up the banks which drives up the market…..which would allow the big boys to SELL…this is not good. Cynical but that’s what it looks like. So we could see a big pull back. Core Portfolio. PFLT and BKLN are a Buy. July 21, 2015 EXG and TOTL are positions in the Core Portfolio. We are suggesting you ADD to your existing position. You can click on the symbol to see the original recommendations. The yield on TOTL is quite small and would be a good place for cash that you want to start working for you. The 3% yield is certainly better than a CD or Treasury Bill. The first rule in this game is NOT to lose money. The economic numbers coming in are very BAD. A major pullback may be hitting us in the next month. With that in mind we are reducing allocations (by 50%) in numerous positions with the exception of the Corporate bonds and exchange traded funds and bond funds. (We are not expecting an interest rate hike.) We are indicating REDUCE positions on the Core Portfolio page. The dividends that we have received will reduce the pain, but we are still taking losses. The markets ‘want’ to go down. If you have big winners, you should think about placing sell stop orders that will get you out if this market tanks.
From marketwatch.com. Maybe gold has finally hit bottom: we certainly hope so. The world’s top money managers have hated gold bullion for almost as long as anyone’s been asking them. But not anymore. With China wobbling, Europe in turmoil and the price of bullion down to multi-year lows, the long-running gold skeptics running the world’s biggest investment funds have suddenly and dramatically turned on to its appeal. “Gold is undervalued” at around $1,155 an ounce, say a small majority of managers, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. Bulls outnumber bears by only 1 percentage point, but the improvement shows an astonishing change from the most recent past, when the gold skeptics formed a clear majority. The survey is significant. Bank of America Merrill Lynch spoke to around 150 top investment honchos around the world who manage about $400 billion in assets