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October 2, 2015

FRIDAY UPDATE:  You cant make up this shit.  The awful jobs report is now projected to force the FED to delay any rate hikes by the FED.  SO this means the stock market will most likely head UP…the stock market does NOT like rising rates.  Goes to show you how this economy is so screwed up.

We are not going anywhere near buying stocks here.  It is just too dangerous to try and forecast whats going to happen.  There is a “baby bond” coming out in the next few weeks that we will be buying.

GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings. We are primarily in corporate bonds and baby bonds, and other selected bonds.

UPDATE:  Bad news keeps coming.  The jobs report today is awful and numerous Companies are announcing humongous layoffs and job cuts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that a record 94,610,000 people (ages 16 and over) were not in the labor force in September. In other words they were neither employed nor had made specific efforts to find work in the prior four weeks.

The number of individuals out of the work force last month — due to discouragement, retirement or otherwise — represented a substantial 579,000 person increase over the most recent record, hit in August, of 94,031,000 people out of the workforce.

While the prior two months saw a labor force participation rate of 62.2 percent, September’s participation rate dropped to 62.4 percent, matching the lowest level seen since October 1977.

More bad news from zerohedge.com

Sarcasm aside, this left just 118K for the private sector. Of this 118K, 78% went to low/minimum-wage paying jobs: Leisure and Hospitality was 30% of the total, adding 35K jobs, 25% was for education and health, more minimum wages, with Retail and Temp Help rounding out the remaining 23% in “gains.”  Meanwhile jobs which actually pay good wages, mining and logging, manufacturing and wholesale trade, all declined in September.

UPDATE:  We are SELLING BKLN and PFLT.  As we have said we are in preservation mode.  Having lost money in the 2008/09 travesty, we are not going to go thru that heartache again.  We are actively looking to reduce exposure.  We are also watching to buy SH when the time is right.  SH is a ETF that shorts the market and you will make money if the market declines, which we think is possible.

Bottom line, we suggest raising cash.  You can always get back in long or short depending on what the charts tell us to do.


There is a new book out:  Unlikeable The Problem With Hillary by Ed Klein.  This is JUST TOO MUCH FUN.  Get your copy right now, you will love the stories on the true Hillary.  Page 10 is sweet.


UPDATE:  BUY NEWTZ if you can get it at $25.00 or pretty close.  Do NOT pay much more than 25.


Other than buying a few Corporate Bonds, we have been doing nothing in the Core Portfolio.  Simply watching and waiting.  We continue holding the select bond funds, corporates and baby bonds.

The stock market started to really dive in late July and we have continuously told you to get out of stocks. 

The market is in a downward spiral and will continue declining as we see NO catalyst that can reverse the trend……UNLESS they bring in another Quantitative Easing which more and more people are talking about. 

And yet many financial advisors tell people to hold stock positions.

In retrospect we should have been shorting with SH but that route can be dangerous.

Yes if you are an educated stock trader, of course you can make money in this market.  But unless you have extensive experience, stay out.  We will have up days, like today (Sept 30) , but LONG term we think the stock market will trend down…..we have been in consolidation mode for a month.

We are looking at a Business Development Company and another baby bond to buy and will advise if we take action.  But the way things are looking, it is very difficult to convince ourselves to seriously consider adding positions.


Dip shit finally leaves:

WASHINGTON — Speaker John A. Boehner, under intense pressure from conservatives in his party, will resign one of the most powerful positions in government and give up his House seat at the end of October, throwing Congress into chaos as it tries to avert a government shutdown.

September 22, 2015

(Update:  Yesterday we subscribed to a NEW financial newsletter from a respected advisor that we have followed for years.  Shocking that they are advising almost 30% in stocks.  The stock market is collapsing and they are telling people to buy stocks!!!!!  We have subscribed to virtually dozens of newsletters over the years and almost ALL of them are crap.  Be aware.  Caterpillar and many Companies continue announcing layoffs.  Terrible news.)  Street talk live is a good site that we like:


Please take our ten second POLL  GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings.

If you have been getting out of stocks and building cash positions, as we have suggested, you may be looking for a safe place to park cash.  You have lousy options like CD’s and money market funds but they are paying close to nothing.

Today we are talking about an ETF that pays over 1%, far better than other income possibilities out there.  This ETF gets into SHORT TERM Treasury Bills, short term Corporate Bonds, and other safe investments.  But do keep in mind this ETF is NOT Federally insured….and the ex-dividend date is usually the first of each month so do not delay if you want to buy. 

Do not pay more than $50.04

It is obvious you are not getting rich with GSY.  It is used simply to earn a few coins with the extra cash that you otherwise are not using.  This is a short term play, hopefully, while we wait for higher paying positions to come into view….altho with this market turmoil, we dont have any idea when the hell this will happen.

We suggest you look at GSY for money that you may need within the next 3-12 months.

Image result for cartoon of parked car

Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration

The Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF* (NYSE: GSY), seeks maximum current income, consistent with preservation of capital and daily liquidity. The Fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in fixed-income securities.

The Fund uses a low duration strategy to seek to outperform the Barclays Capital 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index in addition to providing returns in excess of those available in U.S. Treasury bills, government repurchase agreements, and money market funds, while seeking to provide preservation of capital and daily liquidity. The Fund is not a money market fund and thus does not seek to maintain a stable net asset value of $1.00 per share. The Fund expects, under normal circumstances, to hold a diversified portfolio of fixed-income instruments of varying maturities, but that have an average duration of less than 1 year.


GO TO Core Portfolio for current holdings.

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September 19, 2015

Well kids, the good news.  We are finally over that stupid Fed meeting announcement. 

The bad news.  The stock market has dumped since the moronic Fed spoke, and the highest probability is down FURTHER……………as we have been telling you for months.  We should NOT be buying any stocks right now.  About a month back the bubble burst and we saw the huge market declines.  And we have the ‘death cross’ on many averages.  There is nothing right now that will drive the markets higher.

If you buy stocks long, you will most likely get hurt.  In fact you should be looking at going SHORT using SH or SDS.

Unfortunately the retired folks are the people getting hit hardest by the low interest rates.  They depend on dividend income.  Guess who is getting rich:  the top 10% of the wealthiest who are making out like bandits.

As far as the Core Portfolio we have purchased more Corporate Bonds and hold all other positions.  We DO continue holding the energy positions which we feel are in a LONG term uptrend.

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.



September 14, 2015

Free Stuff:  Two free issues of FORBES NO credit card required.  It is apparent they are building a database for renting so expect a lot of spam phone calls!  Forbes is a great financial magazine.


The former director of Norway’s Nobel Institute revealed this week that he regrets the committee’s decision to give the 2009 Nobel Peace award to President Obama.

Geil Lundestad, director at the institute for 25 years, said in his just-published memoir that he and the committee had unanimously decided to grant the award to Mr. Obama just after his election in 2009 more in hopes of aiding the American president to achieve his goals on nuclear disarmament, rather than in recognition of what Mr. Obama had already accomplished.

The typical American household, six years after the Great Recession, is still worse off, according to a report released Wednesday.

The Census Bureau reported that median household income was $53,657 in 2014. That’s less than the 2013 median of $54,462, but not statistically different. What is of significance is that, when adjusted for inflation, the median household generated 6.5% less than they did in 2007, the year before the recession.

The declining living standards of the average American goes some way to explain why outsiders like Donald Trump and Ben Carson on the right, and Sen. Bernie Sanders on the left, are shooting up the polls for the presidential nomination.

Update:  Here is another Individual Corporate Bond that you may find interesting.  This is Phillip Morris investment grade due in November 2021 and paying 2.81%.  Each bond is $1000.

CUSIP  718172AL3

We will be shocked if anything dramatic happens in the stock market until the Fed speaks altho they may try to artificially drive stocks higher.  It is such a disgrace that the entire market turns on what those morons are doing.  What a mess.  NO MATTER what they do we still feel that the stock market is in a downward trend long term.

We are primarily in bond type investments and plan on holding what we have in the Core Portfolio.  Unless we see some dramatic news, we will sit tight….at least until Thursday.  You could start early on your Christmas shopping!!! 

We follow three very smart financial gurus for investing insight.  (Go to About-Links) Two are complete bears, and one is a bull.  Strange.  Nobody knows the future.

Look at the usage of food stamps. During periods of economic growth, you would expect fewer Americans getting government assistance to put food on the table. But on this recovery, things have only gotten worse. Between 2008 and 2014, food stamp usage in the U.S. economy increased by almost 65%! (Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, last accessed June 25, 2015.)

Putting this in perspective; the number of Americans using food stamps in 2014 (46.53 million) was equal to the entire population of Spain!


September 9, 2015

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.

Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June.

We are becoming very conservative due to the very high risk in the markets.  We feel the stock market will continue downward.  (If the Fed raises rates we should see a short term upward movement, but long term the trend is down.)  So we want only positions where we are fairly certain that we can earn safe yield.  Corporates are a reasonable option.  (You can also look at Treasuries or CD’s)


We are venturing into the individual Corporate Bond world again.  Ventas is offering a bond paying 3.7% and maturing in August 2022.  You need the CUSIP to buy:  92276MAZ8.  The bond prices WILL fluctuate during the years especially if the rates go up.  Corporates act in a similar fashion to US Treasuries.  If you hold them to maturity you get your money back in addition to the yield that you received.

Corporates ARE not guaranteed by the US Government so you get HIGHER rates due to the increased risk.  For example the Company would go in bankruptcy or otherwise experience other problems.  So you need to buy only quality Corporates.  We do NOT recommend corporate bond mutual funds or ETFs….we get into Individual bonds.  In our entire experience, we have had only one bond go belly up, and that was our fault in buying a crappy bond.

Ventas, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company has a portfolio of seniors housing and healthcare properties located throughout the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The Company operates through three segments: triple-net leased properties, senior living operations and MOB operations. The triple-net leased properties segment invests in seniors housing and healthcare properties throughout the United States and the United Kingdom and lease those properties to healthcare operating companies under triple-net or absolute-net leases that obligate the tenants to pay all property-related expenses. The senior living operations segment invests in seniors housing communities throughout the United States and Canada and engages independent operators, such as Atria and Sunrise, to manage those communities. The MOB operations segment, acquires, owns, develops, leases, and manages MOBs throughout the United States. It invests in seniors housing and healthcare properties.


  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


September 8, 2015

While watching the radical ultra liberal CBS news the other day, we almost threw up when they talked about the wonderful 5.1% unemployment numbers.  Do the average working peasants really believe this bullshit?  This corrupt administration continues to lie, lie, lie.  What a disgrace….see below for analysis from the interweb:

Do we actually have anything close to “full employment” in this country?

Of course not.

The truth is that the only way they have been able to get the official “unemployment rate” to steadily go down over the past few years is to eliminate hundreds of thousands of Americans that are chronically unemployed from the official labor force numbers every month. 

According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used we would actually have an unemployment rate of 22.9 percent in this country.


  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


September 3, 2015.  Update Saturday.  All eyes are on the upcoming Fed meeting.  Opinions are all over the place as to whether they will rates.  If they do NOT raise rates the stock market will probably go UP.  If they do raise rates, the market will probably decline.  The safest approach right now is to be out of stocks. We are holding the bonds, debt, energy and floating rate bonds found in the Core Portfolio altho we are still considering selling some positions.  The smart people that we follow feel that we are entering into a bear market (in stocks)  Short term high quality Corporate bonds are an alternative but provide very low yields.

Image result for berkshire hathawayEveryone knows “aw shucks” world famous Warren Buffett from Omaha based Berkshire, so I won’t go into a description.  Today we suggest you look at their Corporate Bonds with an effective yield of 2.91%.  This is a smaller yield than we would normally like but it fits into our conservative approach.  And the bonds are safe, in our opinion.  We rather doubt Berkshire is going to have cash problems.  We understand they have $60 Billion in cash………yikes!!  You should plan on holding these to maturity:  the value will fluctuate especially if the Fed raises rates.

CUSIP  084670BJ6

Maturity Date 2-11-2023

From thehill.com

“Conservative activists believe the Republican Party has abandoned its principles. Moderates feel their leadership is ineffective,” Murray said. “So Republican voters have created their own job description for the next nominee — Wanted: Someone who can shake up Washington; No elected officials need apply.”

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


September 2, 2015

You may have heard or read about the so called ‘death cross’.  Here is a great article explaining exactly what it means:


Info on oil from seekingalpha.com:

However, the big reason for this reversal higher is simply short covering. Hedge funds, which had placed record bearish bets on crude oil, have been exiting their positions since mid August. Momentum traders, which likely got burned when oil dipped below $40 per bbl, are now taking bets on the other side. There is a growing view that oil prices will rally enough to test their 200-day moving average of ~$53 per bbl. In other words, the trend has turned bullish for crude oil, at least for now.

but as Will Rogers once said during the Great Depression – “I’m not so much concerned about the return on my money as the return of my money.”

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


September 1, 2015.  On August 25, we anticipated that the market would retest the lows–of last Monday.  And thats exactly what happened today.

The markets are scary–even the bond funds are getting hit, and today oil tanked again.

This is bad folks………if you are still in stocks, you should get out on days when you get higher prices and preserve your money.  We may be selling more positions in the Core Portfolio.  

We ARE watching select stocks for a TRADE but foresee NO situation where we would buy as investments.

Do not just sit there and HOPE that things get better.  We feel they will NOT.

From CNBC:

The market turmoil continued Tuesday as weak data out of China pushed all major U.S. indices down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq composite have now fallen a respective 6.5, 9.5 and 1 percent year to date, and according to one renown technician, the move may have signaled the end of one of the longest-running bull markets in history.

Looking at a chart of the S&P 500, Louise Yamada noted that momentum has been declining for four months, which by her work, is a “classic” sell signal.

“This is suggesting to me that we are looking at a bear market,” said Yamada said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” Yamada noted that the last two times the market saw a similar shift in momentum were in January 2008 and June 2000.

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.

August 31, 2015  For over a month we have been updating the HOME page on this blog…….in contrast to creating and formatting new posts which are automatically sent out by WordPress, the host.

Updating requires much less time and this is due to new time constraints on our end.  But on the positive side, we are updating practically daily.

SO what does this mean to you.  If you on the ‘follow’ list and are interested in reading our comments, you will need to place our URL on your ‘favorites’ list and check in at your convenience.


We have been buying some shorter term higher quality Corporate Bonds recently.  Due to the correction in the last week, and with an anticipated decline in the stock market, our focus going forward will be CONSERVATIVE investments, which probably mean lower yield.  We shall see.

Here is a good article discussing the potential dangers in stocks:


  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.

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(August 28, 2015)

The government came in on Monday and saved the collapsing stock market by throwing truckloads of cash to the banks.

They also manipulated the GDP higher to make everyone feel good.  So the markets have been going up all week.

BUT nothing has changed.  The economy sucks as we have been telling you forever.  Something like 93 MILLION people are not working.  There is NO stimulus to move the markets higher…..NONE.  SO, we feel the stock market will gradually decline over the next several months pending some new QE program or some other magical catalyst that we do not foresee.

If you own stocks, be sure and have sell stops in place in case this thing collapses.

We own gold and energy positions in the Core Portfolio.  They have started an upward trend the last few days and maybe, just maybe, we have a bottom in place.  If you do not own any of these, you should start buying.

Hooray for Trump.  We are so glad that somebody is starting to talk about the horrendous debt load that the US carries.  Maybe the big Donald can start to raise awareness among the American people:  nobody else is.  The current corrupt Socialist Administration has done nothing for almost eight years and radical change is needed.

The “death cross” pattern is spreading fast through the stock market like a bearish virus.

On Friday, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.06% became the latest victim. The broad-market barometer’s 50-day moving average fell to 2,074.42, according to FactSet, to cross below the 200-day moving average, which slipped to 2,075.39.

The S&P 500’s last death cross appeared on Aug. 12, 2011. It bottomed about six weeks later after falling a further 6.3%. The opposite bullish crossover, known as a “golden cross,” appeared 5 1/2 months later.

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


(Wednesday August 26, 2015)

We have been purchasing Corporate Bonds from Celgene and Aflac.  Today we suggest you look at Wells Fargo bonds paying 3.52%.  They mature in February 2023.  We are actively searching for conservative good quality investments with five to ten year time frames.  Unless Wells Fargo goes bankrupt, highly unlikely, you will get a nice income stream for the next eight years.  Go to Core Portfolio to see all current holdings.

Long term—– meaning over the next six months, we see declines in the stock market.  There is talk of a new Quantitative Easing program which would probably prevent declines, but we do not see the Fed implementing yet another QE program. 

We have been actively selling positions.  We are still looking at SH which is an inverse etf, basically ‘shorting the market.

CUSIP for Wells Fargo bond:  94974BPJ4

PRH is a baby-bond from Prudential.  This is an excellent holding and try to get it under $25.00.

We sold DSL and reduced PFLT.

From investyourself.com:

Barring any new lunacy from the Fed’s such as QE 4, 5, 6 etc, Barring any push to shove money out of helicopters, the top is in.  But here’s the catch. Even if they do QE4, and 5, and push money out of helicopters… it won’t last. Yes we might hit a new high for a bit, but it too will fail.  ALL ponzi’s fail folks. This one too.


 “That explains why there’s so much amazing support for Trump,” added Lessig. “Americans are willing to put up with his outrageous views because they look at this guy and say, Holy crap. Here it is. A politician not beholden to these crony funders. That’s the gift.”



(Tuesday August 25:  Selling SDIV and EXG.  We are in preservation mode.  See Core Portfolio.  The market will probably drop DOWN to retest the Monday lows.  We continue holding the bonds and debt issues found in the Core Portfolio.)

Follow this link to a “must read” article:


(Saturday August 22, 2015)

NEWS!!!!   We suggest you subscribe to this.

The Prudent Speculator, a 38-year-old value investing newsletter, is happy to announce the launch of its new complimentary newsletter subscription! This will be a condensed version of the current paid newsletter and will be sent via e-mail once a month.

The paid version of The Prudent Speculator began in 1977 and is the #1 ranked, not adjusted for risk, investment newsletter for the past 20, 25 and 30 years according to The Hulbert Financial Digest*. 


We may see a rally next week (head-fake) and you should think about selling any individual stocks that you still own….if and when we see a potential rally.

We have been telling you to place stops that would get you out before we saw the big declines this week.

In the long term view, it is very possible we will see further movement downward in the next few months…this is a slow process so nothing will happen overnite.  If it appears that we will have a complete breakdown, SH is a good inverse etf that rises as the market declines.

We are in conservation mode:  preserving the money that you have NOW.  We are evaluating the bond and debt issues in the Core Portfolio and we may want to sell specific positions depending on what the technical indicators tell us going forward.

People are tossing out the baby with the bath water and even good investments can tumble in sympathy with big market moves.

Having lived through prior crashes, we can tell you about the mental horror that you go through in losing large amounts of money.  It is far better to take losses and save what you have.

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.


(Friday August 21, 2015) 

Image result for celgene

Celgene Corporation is a bio company that is primarily engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of innovative therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases in patients with limited treatment options.  We suggest you look at their Corporate Bonds maturing in 2022 and paying 3.5%.  This is a nice yield that beats the alternatives out there.  The Celgene bonds are a good quality, NOT a junk bond.

CUSIP 151020AH7

The big players in the stock market will try and stabilize stocks today.  But there is a high probability that we will see further downside long term…….for months.  This market is in trouble.

Trump news:  So for the near future at least, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 27% who felt a Trump nomination was likely two months ago when he formally announced his presidential bid, a finding that included just nine percent (9%) who said it was Very Likely.


(Thursday August 20:  Investors are running scared and buying gold.  We have owned GGN and you should look at owning gold miners or gold.

Today we are buying an individual corporate bond from AFLAC.  Everyone is familiar with AFLAC from the television commercials.  They are an insurer with most of their business in Japan.  The bond pays 3.4% which is pretty good.  The bond matures in June 2023 and we like the short maturities.

CUSIP 001055AL6

It is SO important that you understand this:  from streettalklive.com

The Fed is slowly coming to realize that “forward guidance”, “QE” and artificially suppressing interest rates does indeed boost asset prices and creates a burgeoning “wealth gap.” However, since those programs only affect the top 20% of the population that actually has money to invest, it does little to create real prosperity across the broad economy.

Go to Core Portfolio for all current positions.

(Tuesday August 18:  The stock market has been flat-lining sideways for six months.  That alone should tell you that there are problems.  There is no impetus to move the market up.  And if the Fed decides to raise rates (which we believe would be a very stupid move) the markets will most likely decline.  So we continue to advise putting in sell stops on individual stocks and etf’s that will get you out if we see significant declines.  It is our OPINION that we are setting up for a correction–keep in mind this blog is not involved in trading stocks but we keep giving you our perspective.  We did buy PG a while back and got out at a small profit.  We were going to fiddle with Wal Mart but they took a hit yesterday so that would have been a mistake.  And to make matters worse China has been roiling the markets.  (We hear that 13 of the DOW 30 have already corrected 10% down.)

IF ANYTHING you should start looking looking at the inverse etf SH which would go up IF the market tanks.  We would NOT buy SH right now but keep it on the radar if you want to get into shorting the market.

As far as the bonds and debt issues that we hold in the Core Portfolio we are holding, for now.

We are not buying or selling anything but we are inclined to sell some positions.  At this point we are far more concerned about CONSERVING our money and NOT taking risk in trying to reach for yield.)

This is an amazing admission:

The Federal Reserve is putting some of its post-crisis actions under a magnifying glass and not liking everything it sees.

In a white paper dissecting the U.S. central bank’s actions to stem the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, Stephen D. Williamson, vice president of the St. Louis Fed, finds fault with three key policy tenets.

Specifically, he believes the zero interest rates in place since 2008 that were designed to spark good inflation actually have resulted in just the opposite. And he believes the “forward guidance” the Fed has used to communicate its intentions has instead been a muddle of broken vows that has served only to confuse investors. Finally, he asserts that quantitative easing, or the monthly debt purchases that swelled the central bank’s balance sheet past the $4.5 trillion mark, have at best a tenuous link to actual economic improvements.

Williamson is quick to acknowledge that then-Chairman Ben Bernanke‘s Fed, through liquidity programs like the Term Auction Facility that injected cash into banks, “helped to assure that the Fed’s Great Depression errors were not repeated.”

  Go To Core Portfolio Click HereWant to send comments? Go here.

(Thursday August 13:  We are in the very, very, very early stages of a market crash.  People are finally starting to realize that our economy is crap, something we have been telling you for many many months.  Investors are starting to get very nervous and that is why they are herding into gold.  We continue holding GGN, our gold position, in the Core Portfolio.

It now appears there will be NO Fed rate hike in September–but they are pretty stupid so you never know.  Unless we see yet another QE stimulus program to prop up the markets, highly unlikely, we feel stock investors will be hurt badly probably next year.

Just last week we anticipated a rate hike but with this China mess, things changed again.  What a fiasco.

The “big boys” are selling stocks and you may want to do the same, or at least put in sell stops.

Here is another item that has everyone concerned:

On Tuesday the 50-day simple moving average for the Dow Jones Industrial Index moved below the 200-day simple moving average. This so-called “death cross” is among the most bearish market signals.

Funny Quote:  I sold all my China, Im eating off paper plates.)

From zerohedge.com Wow this is bad

Just as we warned earlier – and Goldman subsequently confirmed – the Q2 “stack’em-high” surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences. The Atlanta Fed just released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing an inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. The Fed estimate is now 75% below the street’s consensus!!

Embedded image permalink

(Monday August 10.  It is sounding like the Fed is bound and determined (really………. this time) to increase their overnite rate in September.  This would not be good for the stock market.  As we have repeatedly said, you should be raising cash OR at least have sell stops in place for your stock holdings. 

When you own stocks that pay 2 or 3% in yield but they decline 5 or 10% in value, you LOSE.  Don’t get caught in that mind-set.  Significant declines in stock prices will really hurt your long-term goals.

We are NOT stock traders but we do hold many income positions such as corporate bonds and exchange traded debt.  We continue holding all income investments that are listed in the Core Portfolio.  You do NOT want to be buying any annuities, utilities, preferred stocks. REITs, muni bonds.)


(August 7.  Did Trump jump the shark last nite?

We have been telling you for weeks that you should have sell stops in place for any stocks that you are holding.  You could spend 24 hours a day on the net reading articles about this awful economy.  And yet the Fed morons are talking about raising rates.  This situation in the financial markets is unreal………………………… 

Unless you are a buy and hold investor AND think everything will turn out fine, you should be raising cash…quickly.

More from the Web:  “As noted earlier in the week, state and local taxes have soared 75%. While this would be no big deal if wages and salaries had risen by 75% in the same time frame, but earnings have barely kept pace with inflation (38% since 2000).”

(August 4.  Wow isn’t it amazing how Trump is taking the country by storm.

If you are a short term or day trader, you can make money in these weird markets.  But you damn well better have experience and know what ur doing.  This blog is not into short term stock trading….it’s just too much work and so time consuming.

We have been buying some short term Corporate Bonds for the personal accounts, but have not suggested anything in the Core Portfolio.  There is just simply nothing in the dividend arena that looks good especially in this weak market.  We are holding positions and collecting dividends.

Even stock leaders like Apple and Facebook are weak.  We still expect a five to ten percent correction in the total stock market SPY…..sell stops should be in place so that you get out automatically if we see declines.

From investyourself.com

In other words the market isn’t near all-time highs because of the fundamentals of so many great stocks. It’s there from derivatives, QE programs, buy backs, accounting gimmicks, etc.

GO here for helpful Links. If you find our stuff useful, please hit the LIKE button below!

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(August 3:  The financial situation is getting more serious by the day.  We have three options:

There is no catalyst to drive markets higher.

If the Fed morons raise rates, the consolidation we have seen for months MAY morph into:

the third option which is going from a weakening trend into………..a major correction.

Big institutions are selling stocks on large volumes.  You need to take precautionary measures by either selling stock positions or placing sell stops.

Big investors are fleeing stocks.

In a note Tuesday, Jill Carey Hall at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) wrote that the clients’ net sales of US stocks amounted to $4.1 billion last week, the largest total since January 2008.

(August 1:  Stocks continue in this consolidation phase and nobody can tell you if it will break out to the Upside or Downside….but it will eventually.  We have been suggesting that you place sell stops for stocks in case the market collapses.  Goldman Sachs, Apple, Facebook and IBM are some of the big stocks that will continue downward so beware if you own these.  We are smack dab in the middle of the “sell in may and go away period”.

We continue holding the corporate, short term and specialty bonds, and exchange traded debt.)

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(July 31:  Capital preservation is paramount here.  We have been in a consolidation for almost five months and there is NO evident event that will drive markets HIGHER and break out of this stagnant market.  We still suggest you place sell stops that will get you out of your positions if the markets tank.  We sold PG a few weeks ago at a small profit and yesterday it bombed:  just another indication of what can go wrong is this environment.  We are not saying you should sell right (unless you have obvious losers) now but do place stops.  We ARE selling positions in our personal accounts in an effort to preserve the portfolio…also see Core Portfolio for changes.

(July 30.  If the idiots at the Fed raise rates, we are going to see declines.  It’s time to fine tune portfolios and GET OUT of positions that are not working.  If you do not want to sell right now have stops in that will get you out.  Raising cash is probably the prudent thing to do in this weak market.  Biotechs are weak, sell.  If this market crashes you may want to use SH to short the market….we suggest you get familiar with this easy way to short using an ETF.



President Trump??

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 25 per cent of GOP voters want to elect a President Trump, resulting in a double-digit advantage over his nearest rival Jeb Bush 

The former Florida governor trails with 12 per cent.

(July 29.  We got a bounce yesterday but the underlying foundation of the market is weak.  They are trying to drive the market higher today, but you should anticipate further downward action…….it makes sense to have sell stops in place on stocks.  We are still holding all debt and bond issues in the Core Portfolio.)

For the first time this year, Donald Trump tops a state poll of GOP presidential candidates in Florida.

A St. Pete Polls survey released on Wednesday shows the New York businessman with 26 percent support, with Jeb Bush in second place with 20 percent.


At first glance, the statement did not appear menacing. I was told I could expect to receive a benefit of “about $2,136 a month” upon reaching age 70 — which certainly seems like good news. But immediately I thought of a parallel of President Obama’s infamous Obamacare promise: “If you like your Social Security, you can keep your Social Security.” ADVERTISEMENT Then, as if on cue, I saw an asterisk with the following message: The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2033, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421790/social-security-bankruptcy-statement-baby-boomers

(July 28.  From economiccollapse.com: .…….. you can see that the U.S. national debt was sitting at about 9 trillion dollars when we entered the last recession.  Since that time, the debt of the federal government has doubled.  We are on the exact same path that Greece has gone down, and what you are looking at below is a recipe for national economic suicide… (July 27 Update:  What  A MESS:

“Demand for automobile debt in the U.S. is enabling lenders to make longer loans to people with spotty credit, stoking concern that car shoppers are being lulled into debt loads they won’t be able to sustain. Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014, according to data from Citigroup Inc. Loans as long as seven years are increasingly being put into more bonds as auto-finance companies and Wall Street banks sell the securities at the fastest pace since 2007.”

(Saturday Update)  Technical indicators are telling us that stocks are headed DOWN…at least for the short term.  We do not foresee what could change this trend.  Many large Companies are showing significant downtrends:  IBM, Intel, many others.  We have suggested stop loss orders to get you out of stocks if the situation gets worse……….we would not be shocked to see another five or ten percent decline. The ‘sell in May and go away’ axiom would have been good advice this year.

We are still holding all the bond positions in the Core Portfolio as we do NOT see significant rate increases which would hurt bonds.  We are also holding the floating rate positions and the other positions that we have listed.)

(Friday Update:  We suggest placing sell stops on all stock holdings.  You will get out if this stock market tanks. The S&P has dived below the 50 day moving average and we suggest CAUTION.  Interest rates will probably come down so we are holding all bonds.) hussmanfunds.com A progressive internal deterioration of the market has been increasingly evident in recent months, and became severe last week. For example, the chart below compares the S&P 500 Index to the same 500 component stocks, but weighted equally rather than by market capitalization. While the difference may not seem significant, it also implies that even an equally-weighted portfolio of S&P 500 stocks, hedged with the S&P 500 index itself, would have lost several percent since mid-April. “It wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark.” – Howard Ruff “You have to think anyway, so why not think big?”  Donald Trump (Thursday Update:  We suggest raising cash, even if you have to sell losing positions.  (We are not selling the bonds and debt issues—rates will probably come down.)  It appears they are driving up the banks which drives up the market…..which would allow the big boys to SELL…this is not good.  Cynical but that’s what it looks like.  So we could see a big pull back.  Core Portfolio.  PFLT and BKLN are a Buy. July 21, 2015  EXG and TOTL are positions in the Core Portfolio.  We are suggesting you ADD to your existing position.  You can click on the symbol to see the original recommendations.  The yield on TOTL is quite small and would be a good place for cash that you want to start working for you.  The 3% yield is certainly better than a CD or Treasury Bill. The first rule in this game is NOT to lose money. The economic numbers coming in are very BAD.  A major pullback may be hitting us in the next month. With that in mind we are reducing allocations (by 50%) in numerous positions with the exception of the Corporate bonds and exchange traded funds and bond funds.  (We are not expecting an interest rate hike.)  We are indicating REDUCE positions on the Core Portfolio page. The dividends that we have received will reduce the pain, but we are still taking losses. The markets ‘want’ to go down.  If you have big winners, you should think about placing sell stop orders that will get you out if this market tanks.


From marketwatch.com.  Maybe gold has finally hit bottom:  we certainly hope so. The world’s top money managers have hated gold bullion for almost as long as anyone’s been asking them. But not anymore. With China wobbling, Europe in turmoil and the price of bullion down to multi-year lows, the long-running gold skeptics running the world’s biggest investment funds have suddenly and dramatically turned on to its appeal. “Gold is undervalued” at around $1,155 an ounce, say a small majority of managers, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. Bulls outnumber bears by only 1 percentage point, but the improvement shows an astonishing change from the most recent past, when the gold skeptics formed a clear majority. The survey is significant. Bank of America Merrill Lynch spoke to around 150 top investment honchos around the world who manage about $400 billion in assets

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July 17, 2015  Recent economic numbers SUKK.  GDP, retail sales, industrial production are lousy.  You wouldn’t know it listening to this corrupt administration.

Companies are buying back their own shares which reduces the float and makes their earnings look BETTER.  More manipulation and the market has been heading higher recently.

BE ALERT.  This market has been in consolidation for months.  It will either break up big or break down big.

Don’t get caught with your pants down.  We will give you our thoughts as we proceed.  But that is only our opinion….and our crystal ball is often wrong.  Just be prepared to sell.

On interest rates:  We feel there is no way that the Fed can increase their overnight rates with the way this economy is operating.  How the hell can you see a growing economy with millions of people out of work and collecting money from the government.  So we continue holding interest rate sensitive positions in the Core Portfolio.

Yesterday we mentioned Marilyn Cohen, a bond guru that we follow.  She is giving a speech tomorrow and you can watch online.  Go to this link:


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New business CLOSURES are HIGHER than new business startups.  And we are being told everything is looking great.  LOLOL


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July 16, 2015  An excellent article on the rise of Trump…….yeah you know who I’m talking about: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/the-appeal-of-donald-trump-120162.html?ml=m_t1_2h#.Vaf82rVcLh5


You just have to laugh at those moronic 2016 Republican Presidential candidates.

Hillary, will get the women and black voters. Republicans will lose the gay and Mexican/Latino blocks. Republicans lose all the West  and East Coast Ultra Liberals Republicans will lose the lower income groups as they demand their entitlements (from the Democrats):  free money, food stamps, free phones, subsidized health care. The Republicans Got Nothing.

Forecast:  Democrats win by a landslide.


The Little Bond eBooklet I have been following Marilyn Cohen, a bond guru, for more years than I care to mention.  She is an expert in the field of bonds and I have obtained my bond education from her books, speeches, and online postings.  Marilyn has posted a FREE mini eBook talking about municipal and corporate bonds.  If you R interested here is the link: https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/531948

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(Update:  We are taking a serious look at Wal Mart to buy long.)

July 13, 2015.  Well….who doesn’t know QVC.  If you have cable TV you more than likely have watched the chatty hosts hawk everything under the sun including dresses, jewelry, computers, widgets, doo-dads……you name it.  With numerous TV and online shopping channels offering low prices and free shipping, it’s no wonder that retail stores are closing right and left. We can earn some decent yield by buying into this shopping sector.  QVC is offering a Corporate Bond with a 4.99%  yield.  That is really nice in this low interest environment. The bond matures in 2024.  You should be able to get pricing for two bonds.  I would not buy much more. You should plan on holding to maturity BUT they can be called at any time.

CUSIP  747262AS2

QVC is an American cable, satellite and broadcast television network, and multinational corporation specializing in televised home shopping that is owned by Liberty Interactive.  They reach 235 million households. Image result for qvc


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We are taking extreme pain in our pipeline energy positions but we continue to hold:  Here is a link to a good article discussing the current situation: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3310575-why-low-crude-oil-prices-are-good-for-u-s-pipeline-investors


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We are NOT buying preferreds, REITS, municipal bonds, utilities, annuities.


Next President or …crash and burn????????????????

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The liberal press just does not understand how pissed off the American people are with this corrupt government:

Donald Trump’s position on immigration does not seem to be hurting the real-estate developer’s standing in the Republican presidential primary.

Two new polls have him in first place among registered Republican voters.

(Update July 9.  The markets are breaking down and the sentiment indicators indicate a continued DOWNWARD trend.  Greece and China are really affecting the markets but should be resolved.

We still feel this is a correction and not a complete collapse.  We suggest HOLDING all positions.  But having said that if we see a total breakdown there is no other option than to sell positions……but again we do not expect that.  Most of our Core Portfolio positions are bond and bond like holdings with some floating rate funds thrown in……….that should hold up.  The energy related holdings are getting hit hard but we knew they could be volatile,…they are oversold and it is prudent to hold on for the dividends.)

July 6, 2015  Exactly one year ago we bought PRH.  The copy is pasted below.

PRH has dropped recently but is making a turn-around.  BUY……. or you can add to existing positions.


Buy at $24.75 and under $25.00

Prudential Financial 5.7% Junior Subordinated Notes PRH is debt that trades on the stock exchange.  It trades like a stock.  The income is distributed quarterly.

PRH gives provides you a good investment at low risk which is why you are seeing a somewhat low yield BUT its certainly better than a CD or Treasury.  PRH can be called in 2018 at $25.00 which is HIGHER than what you are going to pay…what a great deal.

I really like Exchange Traded Debt and have had good luck over the years.

Can you believe this number:  $747 Billion in assets.  Wow.  Prudential Financial, Inc. is an insurance and investment management organization headquartered in Newark, New Jersey. As of March 31, 2014, the company had total assets of $747 billion and total shareholders’ equity of $39 billion.

Bottom Line:  Unless Prudential goes belly up which is most unlikely you have very little risk and a pretty good yield.  We also hold VZA and JMPC which are debt issues, in the Core Portfolio.


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The monthly manipulated jobs report was released last week.   The stated 5.3% unemployment rate is pure fiction.

First, the previous two months were revised Lower by 60,000 jobs.  Wow that’s good news isn’t it.

Lousy Part-Time jobs increased by 161,000 while Full-Time jobs DECREASED by 350,000.  That’s really good news isn’t it.

Even worse, 640,000 people are no longer counted as part of the work force……going on disability, food stamps, not looking for work.  More good news isn’t it.

Bottom line, more and more people are going on government doles and getting free money (that’s what Obamaliar wants) which means they are out of the work force and NOT COUNTED, WHICH MEANS the unemployment rate looks better than it really is.  Sounds bizarre doesn’t it. 

The government says the not looking for work crowd does not exist, so we do not need to count them!!!!!

I feel like I’m in the Colosseum where the government tries to divert our attention from the bad economy……watching the man eating tigers…….while Rome burns.

Image result for rome colosseum


Since 2007:  1.4 Million Manufacturers Lost and 1.4 Million Waiters Gained.  Wow what a strong economy LOLOL


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