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RULE 1 DONT LOSE MONEY. RULE 2 SEE RULE 1

(August 1:  Stocks continue in this consolidation phase and nobody can tell you if it will break out to the Upside or Downside….but it will eventually.  We have been suggesting that you place sell stops for stocks in case the market collapses.  Goldman Sachs, Apple, Facebook and IBM are some of the big stocks that will continue downward so beware if you own these.  We are smack dab in the middle of the “sell in may and go away period”.

We continue holding the corporate, short term and specialty bonds, and exchange traded debt.)

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(July 31:  Capital preservation is paramount here.  We have been in a consolidation for almost five months and there is NO evident event that will drive markets HIGHER and break out of this stagnant market.  We still suggest you place sell stops that will get you out of your positions if the markets tank.  We sold PG a few weeks ago at a small profit and yesterday it bombed:  just another indication of what can go wrong is this environment.  We are not saying you should sell right (unless you have obvious losers) now but do place stops.  We ARE selling positions in our personal accounts in an effort to preserve the portfolio…also see Core Portfolio for changes.

(July 30.  If the idiots at the Fed raise rates, we are going to see declines.  It’s time to fine tune portfolios and GET OUT of positions that are not working.  If you do not want to sell right now have stops in that will get you out.  Raising cash is probably the prudent thing to do in this weak market.  Biotechs are weak, sell.  If this market crashes you may want to use SH to short the market….we suggest you get familiar with this easy way to short using an ETF.

Recession????

Skousen-Index-051115

President Trump??

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 25 per cent of GOP voters want to elect a President Trump, resulting in a double-digit advantage over his nearest rival Jeb Bush 

The former Florida governor trails with 12 per cent.

(July 29.  We got a bounce yesterday but the underlying foundation of the market is weak.  They are trying to drive the market higher today, but you should anticipate further downward action…….it makes sense to have sell stops in place on stocks.  We are still holding all debt and bond issues in the Core Portfolio.)

For the first time this year, Donald Trump tops a state poll of GOP presidential candidates in Florida.

A St. Pete Polls survey released on Wednesday shows the New York businessman with 26 percent support, with Jeb Bush in second place with 20 percent.

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At first glance, the statement did not appear menacing. I was told I could expect to receive a benefit of “about $2,136 a month” upon reaching age 70 — which certainly seems like good news. But immediately I thought of a parallel of President Obama’s infamous Obamacare promise: “If you like your Social Security, you can keep your Social Security.” ADVERTISEMENT Then, as if on cue, I saw an asterisk with the following message: The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2033, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421790/social-security-bankruptcy-statement-baby-boomers

(July 28.  From economiccollapse.com: .…….. you can see that the U.S. national debt was sitting at about 9 trillion dollars when we entered the last recession.  Since that time, the debt of the federal government has doubled.  We are on the exact same path that Greece has gone down, and what you are looking at below is a recipe for national economic suicide… (July 27 Update:  What  A MESS:

“Demand for automobile debt in the U.S. is enabling lenders to make longer loans to people with spotty credit, stoking concern that car shoppers are being lulled into debt loads they won’t be able to sustain. Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014, according to data from Citigroup Inc. Loans as long as seven years are increasingly being put into more bonds as auto-finance companies and Wall Street banks sell the securities at the fastest pace since 2007.”

(Saturday Update)  Technical indicators are telling us that stocks are headed DOWN…at least for the short term.  We do not foresee what could change this trend.  Many large Companies are showing significant downtrends:  IBM, Intel, many others.  We have suggested stop loss orders to get you out of stocks if the situation gets worse……….we would not be shocked to see another five or ten percent decline. The ‘sell in May and go away’ axiom would have been good advice this year.

We are still holding all the bond positions in the Core Portfolio as we do NOT see significant rate increases which would hurt bonds.  We are also holding the floating rate positions and the other positions that we have listed.)

(Friday Update:  We suggest placing sell stops on all stock holdings.  You will get out if this stock market tanks. The S&P has dived below the 50 day moving average and we suggest CAUTION.  Interest rates will probably come down so we are holding all bonds.) hussmanfunds.com A progressive internal deterioration of the market has been increasingly evident in recent months, and became severe last week. For example, the chart below compares the S&P 500 Index to the same 500 component stocks, but weighted equally rather than by market capitalization. While the difference may not seem significant, it also implies that even an equally-weighted portfolio of S&P 500 stocks, hedged with the S&P 500 index itself, would have lost several percent since mid-April. “It wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark.” – Howard Ruff “You have to think anyway, so why not think big?”  Donald Trump (Thursday Update:  We suggest raising cash, even if you have to sell losing positions.  (We are not selling the bonds and debt issues—rates will probably come down.)  It appears they are driving up the banks which drives up the market…..which would allow the big boys to SELL…this is not good.  Cynical but that’s what it looks like.  So we could see a big pull back.  Core Portfolio.  PFLT and BKLN are a Buy. July 21, 2015  EXG and TOTL are positions in the Core Portfolio.  We are suggesting you ADD to your existing position.  You can click on the symbol to see the original recommendations.  The yield on TOTL is quite small and would be a good place for cash that you want to start working for you.  The 3% yield is certainly better than a CD or Treasury Bill. The first rule in this game is NOT to lose money. The economic numbers coming in are very BAD.  A major pullback may be hitting us in the next month. With that in mind we are reducing allocations (by 50%) in numerous positions with the exception of the Corporate bonds and exchange traded funds and bond funds.  (We are not expecting an interest rate hike.)  We are indicating REDUCE positions on the Core Portfolio page. The dividends that we have received will reduce the pain, but we are still taking losses. The markets ‘want’ to go down.  If you have big winners, you should think about placing sell stop orders that will get you out if this market tanks.

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From marketwatch.com.  Maybe gold has finally hit bottom:  we certainly hope so. The world’s top money managers have hated gold bullion for almost as long as anyone’s been asking them. But not anymore. With China wobbling, Europe in turmoil and the price of bullion down to multi-year lows, the long-running gold skeptics running the world’s biggest investment funds have suddenly and dramatically turned on to its appeal. “Gold is undervalued” at around $1,155 an ounce, say a small majority of managers, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. Bulls outnumber bears by only 1 percentage point, but the improvement shows an astonishing change from the most recent past, when the gold skeptics formed a clear majority. The survey is significant. Bank of America Merrill Lynch spoke to around 150 top investment honchos around the world who manage about $400 billion in assets

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STAY ALERT

July 17, 2015  Recent economic numbers SUKK.  GDP, retail sales, industrial production are lousy.  You wouldn’t know it listening to this corrupt administration.

Companies are buying back their own shares which reduces the float and makes their earnings look BETTER.  More manipulation and the market has been heading higher recently.

BE ALERT.  This market has been in consolidation for months.  It will either break up big or break down big.

Don’t get caught with your pants down.  We will give you our thoughts as we proceed.  But that is only our opinion….and our crystal ball is often wrong.  Just be prepared to sell.

On interest rates:  We feel there is no way that the Fed can increase their overnight rates with the way this economy is operating.  How the hell can you see a growing economy with millions of people out of work and collecting money from the government.  So we continue holding interest rate sensitive positions in the Core Portfolio.

Yesterday we mentioned Marilyn Cohen, a bond guru that we follow.  She is giving a speech tomorrow and you can watch online.  Go to this link:

http://www.sanfranciscomoneyshow.com/expert-details.asp?speakerid=638SPK

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New business CLOSURES are HIGHER than new business startups.  And we are being told everything is looking great.  LOLOL

Birth-Death-Firms-011514

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FREE E-BOOKLET ON BONDS. IF UR A NERD FOR BONDS, READ IT.

July 16, 2015  An excellent article on the rise of Trump…….yeah you know who I’m talking about: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/the-appeal-of-donald-trump-120162.html?ml=m_t1_2h#.Vaf82rVcLh5

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You just have to laugh at those moronic 2016 Republican Presidential candidates.

Hillary, will get the women and black voters. Republicans will lose the gay and Mexican/Latino blocks. Republicans lose all the West  and East Coast Ultra Liberals Republicans will lose the lower income groups as they demand their entitlements (from the Democrats):  free money, food stamps, free phones, subsidized health care. The Republicans Got Nothing.

Forecast:  Democrats win by a landslide.

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The Little Bond eBooklet I have been following Marilyn Cohen, a bond guru, for more years than I care to mention.  She is an expert in the field of bonds and I have obtained my bond education from her books, speeches, and online postings.  Marilyn has posted a FREE mini eBook talking about municipal and corporate bonds.  If you R interested here is the link: https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/531948

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LETS GO SHOPPING FOR QVC BONDS. NICE YIELD!!! QUALITY BONDS.

(Update:  We are taking a serious look at Wal Mart to buy long.)

July 13, 2015.  Well….who doesn’t know QVC.  If you have cable TV you more than likely have watched the chatty hosts hawk everything under the sun including dresses, jewelry, computers, widgets, doo-dads……you name it.  With numerous TV and online shopping channels offering low prices and free shipping, it’s no wonder that retail stores are closing right and left. We can earn some decent yield by buying into this shopping sector.  QVC is offering a Corporate Bond with a 4.99%  yield.  That is really nice in this low interest environment. The bond matures in 2024.  You should be able to get pricing for two bonds.  I would not buy much more. You should plan on holding to maturity BUT they can be called at any time.

CUSIP  747262AS2

QVC is an American cable, satellite and broadcast television network, and multinational corporation specializing in televised home shopping that is owned by Liberty Interactive.  They reach 235 million households. Image result for qvc

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We are taking extreme pain in our pipeline energy positions but we continue to hold:  Here is a link to a good article discussing the current situation: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3310575-why-low-crude-oil-prices-are-good-for-u-s-pipeline-investors

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We are NOT buying preferreds, REITS, municipal bonds, utilities, annuities.

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Next President or …crash and burn????????????????

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PRH IS A GREAT BUY. 5.7%

The liberal press just does not understand how pissed off the American people are with this corrupt government:

Donald Trump’s position on immigration does not seem to be hurting the real-estate developer’s standing in the Republican presidential primary.

Two new polls have him in first place among registered Republican voters.

(Update July 9.  The markets are breaking down and the sentiment indicators indicate a continued DOWNWARD trend.  Greece and China are really affecting the markets but should be resolved.

We still feel this is a correction and not a complete collapse.  We suggest HOLDING all positions.  But having said that if we see a total breakdown there is no other option than to sell positions……but again we do not expect that.  Most of our Core Portfolio positions are bond and bond like holdings with some floating rate funds thrown in……….that should hold up.  The energy related holdings are getting hit hard but we knew they could be volatile,…they are oversold and it is prudent to hold on for the dividends.)

July 6, 2015  Exactly one year ago we bought PRH.  The copy is pasted below.

PRH has dropped recently but is making a turn-around.  BUY……. or you can add to existing positions.

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Buy at $24.75 and under $25.00

Prudential Financial 5.7% Junior Subordinated Notes PRH is debt that trades on the stock exchange.  It trades like a stock.  The income is distributed quarterly.

PRH gives provides you a good investment at low risk which is why you are seeing a somewhat low yield BUT its certainly better than a CD or Treasury.  PRH can be called in 2018 at $25.00 which is HIGHER than what you are going to pay…what a great deal.

I really like Exchange Traded Debt and have had good luck over the years.

Can you believe this number:  $747 Billion in assets.  Wow.  Prudential Financial, Inc. is an insurance and investment management organization headquartered in Newark, New Jersey. As of March 31, 2014, the company had total assets of $747 billion and total shareholders’ equity of $39 billion.

Bottom Line:  Unless Prudential goes belly up which is most unlikely you have very little risk and a pretty good yield.  We also hold VZA and JMPC which are debt issues, in the Core Portfolio.

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The monthly manipulated jobs report was released last week.   The stated 5.3% unemployment rate is pure fiction.

First, the previous two months were revised Lower by 60,000 jobs.  Wow that’s good news isn’t it.

Lousy Part-Time jobs increased by 161,000 while Full-Time jobs DECREASED by 350,000.  That’s really good news isn’t it.

Even worse, 640,000 people are no longer counted as part of the work force……going on disability, food stamps, not looking for work.  More good news isn’t it.

Bottom line, more and more people are going on government doles and getting free money (that’s what Obamaliar wants) which means they are out of the work force and NOT COUNTED, WHICH MEANS the unemployment rate looks better than it really is.  Sounds bizarre doesn’t it. 

The government says the not looking for work crowd does not exist, so we do not need to count them!!!!!

I feel like I’m in the Colosseum where the government tries to divert our attention from the bad economy……watching the man eating tigers…….while Rome burns.

Image result for rome colosseum

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Since 2007:  1.4 Million Manufacturers Lost and 1.4 Million Waiters Gained.  Wow what a strong economy LOLOL

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OBAMALIAR. OBAMACARE. SOCIALISM.

June 29, 2015  We now know that this administration lied about ObamaCare.  Specifically insurance premiums are going UP.  But the Supreme Court has again ruled in support of Obamacare and for all intents this will be a permanent fixture as America goes down the path of socialism.  Americans are now demanding more and more entitlements which explains why the ultra liberal socialist Bernie Sanders is so popular…free money….free education….free goodies from your friendly government.  Hell, what’s not to like.

So why are we bringing up Obamacare?

When Obamacare was originally passed, we should have been smart enough to get into the healthcare stocks/ETF’s.  Quite simply we did not see the investing opportunity.  Sometimes you can’t see the forest for the trees.  Now it’s too late to get in.

But we are not going to sit around and cry in our soup.  There are some interesting buys in the healthcare Individual Corporate Bond market.  But before we get into that please read the following:

This was a point made by Stephanie Pomboy in an article entitled “What To Expect In The Q2 GDP Number” by Elizabeth MacDonald.

“Spending on healthcare (insurance and services) has increased $232 billion over the last twelve months. That increase accounts for a big ‘two-thirds’ of the $353 billion in consumer spending and one-third of the $666 billion growth in total GDP over the stretch.

And wage gains are being wiped out by rising health costs. ‘The increase in healthcare outlays over the last year is roughly equal to the $284 billion in wage gains for households during that time.'”

A little more background before we go further.  With a few exceptions, we recommend investors invest only in Individual Corporate Bonds, NOT bond funds.  Here is a good overview of this market from http://www.StreetTalkLive.com

“The rise and fall of interest rates are only of concern if you own bond funds or bond related ETF’s. 

Bond funds and bond related ETF’s (exchange traded funds) ARE NOT BONDS. Funds and ETF’s are a BET on the DIRECTION of interest rates just as stocks are a bet on the direction of the market. There is no return of principal function for bond funds or bond related ETF’s and, therefore, they must be managed in a portfolio just as you would manage a stock position.

However, the rise and fall of interest rates is of very little concern in a portfolio of individual bonds that are being held until maturity. The only time the level of interest rates becomes of concern is when a bond owner wishes to liquidate a bond position due to changes in the borrower’s fundamentals, credit worthiness or the bond owner needs to raise liquidity.”

So as mentioned earlier we looked at some INDIVIDUAL CORPORATE bonds from healthcare companies.  Here are some investments that you may find suitable.  Hold to maturity.

HCA 2023 4.4% Cusip 404121AF2

HCP 2025 4.27% Cusip 40414LAM1

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BUY ENERGY TRANSFER BONDS–IF YOU CAN PLEASE DONATE TO AIR SHEPERD SEE BELOW

June 25, 2015  As a reminder to our newer readers, we own every position in the Core Portfolio.  It is not a fantasy portfolio.  It is real.  We are in the game with anyone that follows the recommendations.  Having said that, here is a new suggestion:

Energy Transfer, the folks that are trying to buy WMB (which we sold last week) is selling a Corporate Bond that offers 4.77% and matures in 2025.  When buying INDIVIDUAL Corporates you want quality companies and Energy Transfer fits the bill.  The price yesterday was $94.41…this is a super good price.  So a bond will cost you approx. $940 each.  You should plan on holding this to maturity.

CUSIP 29273RBD0

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Image result for air shepherd

http://airshepherd.org/

There appears to be a way to stop elephant and rhino poaching.  Please visit their site and donate if you can.

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Via Judicial Watch,

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) files obtained by Judicial Watch reveal that the dad, maternal grandpa and father-in-law of President Obama’s trusted senior advisor, Valerie Jarrett, were hardcore Communists under investigation by the U.S. government.

Jarrett’s dad, pathologist and geneticist Dr. James Bowman, had extensive ties to Communist associations and individuals, his lengthy FBI file shows. In 1950 Bowman was in communication with a paid Soviet agent named Alfred Stern, who fled to Prague after getting charged with espionage. Bowman was also a member of a Communist-sympathizing group called the Association of Internes and Medical Students. After his discharge from the Army Medical Corps in 1955, Bowman moved to Iran to work, the FBI records show.

According to Bowman’s government file the Association of Internes and Medical Students is an organization that “has long been a faithful follower of the Communist Party line” and engages in un-American activities. Bowman was born in Washington D.C. and had deep ties to Chicago, where he often collaborated with fellow Communists. JW also obtained documents on Bowman from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) showing that the FBI was brought into investigate him for his membership in a group that “follows the communist party line.” The Jarrett family Communist ties also include a business partnership between Jarrett’s maternal grandpa, Robert Rochon Taylor, and Stern, the Soviet agent associated with her dad.

Jarrett’s father-in-law, Vernon Jarrett, was also another big-time Chicago Communist, according to separate FBI files obtained by JW as part of a probe into the Jarrett family’s Communist ties. For a period of time Vernon Jarrett appeared on the FBI’s Security Index and was considered a potential Communist saboteur who was to be arrested in the event of a conflict with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). His FBI file reveals that he was assigned to write propaganda for a Communist Party front group in Chicago that would “disseminate the Communist Party line among…the middle class.”

It’s been well documented that Valerie Jarrett, a Chicago lawyer and longtime Obama confidant, is a liberal extremist who wields tremendous power in the White House. Faithful to her roots, she still has connections to many Communist and extremist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood. Jarrett and her family also had strong ties to Frank Marshal Davis, a big Obama mentor and Communist Party member with an extensive FBI file.

JW has exposed Valerie Jarrett’s many transgressions over the years, including her role in covering up a scandalous gun-running operation carried out by the Department of Justice (DOJ). Last fall JW obtained public records that show Jarrett was a key player in the effort to cover up that Attorney General Eric Holder lied to Congress about the Fast and Furious, a disastrous experiment in which the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco Firearms and Explosives (ATF) allowed guns from the U.S. to be smuggled into Mexico so they could eventually be traced to drug cartels. Instead, federal law enforcement officers lost track of hundreds of weapons which have been used in an unknown number of crimes, including the murder of a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Arizona.

In 2008 JW got documents linking Valerie Jarrett, who also served as co-chairman of Obama’s presidential transition team, to a series of real estate scandals, including several housing projects operated by convicted felon and Obama fundraiser/friend Antoin “Tony” Rezko. According to the documents obtained from the Illinois Secretary of State, Valerie Jarrett served as a board member for several organizations that provided funding and support for Chicago slum projects operated by Rezko.

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